Discussions continued this week in Cairo and Doha to try to get Israel and Hamas to agree on the specifics of a hostage-release and ceasefire deal in Gaza. The White House is hoping that presenting these details as part of a comprehensive package will encourage Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to compromise on key issues, enabling the deal to proceed.
U.S., along with Qatari and Egyptian mediators, aim to reach an agreement on as many practical details as possible, fill in gaps with their proposals on the broader deal, and then present it to both Israel and Hamas as a unified package. U.S. and Israeli officials have expressed hope that once the package is finalized, Hamas will recognize it is receiving most of what it sought: at least six weeks of ceasefire, the release of hundreds of prisoners, the return of displaced Palestinians to their homes, an increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza, initial reconstruction efforts, and medical treatment for hundreds of wounded Hamas militants in Egypt.
Contentious issues, such as Netanyahu’s insistence on maintaining full control along the Egypt-Gaza border and overseeing the movement of Palestinians from southern Gaza to the north, and Sinwar’s demand that the agreement lead to the end of the war, would be deferred to the final stage of negotiations.
U.S. officials optimistic of breakthrough
Most politically sensitive topics would be addressed at the end, at which point the U.S. would likely present an updated and final bridging proposal to the parties, challenging them to make a decision.
Although there hasn’t been a breakthrough in the negotiations, U.S. officials are optimistic as the talks continue and regional escalation with Hezbollah or Iran has been avoided so far.
On Sunday and Monday, lower-level officials from Israel, Hamas, Qatar, Egypt, and the U.S. continued discussions in Cairo concerning the wording of the agreement. White House spokesperson John Kirby stated on Monday that progress was ongoing and described the talks as constructive. The discussions concluded on Monday night, with Israeli officials returning to Israel and Hamas officials heading back to Doha to consult with their leaders.
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On Wednesday, a delegation of Israeli working-level officials from the Mossad, Israel Defense Forces, and the Shin Bet traveled to Doha to continue indirect talks with Hamas, mediated by representatives from the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt. The discussions in Doha concluded on Thursday night, and the Israeli delegation returned to Israel.
Brett McGurk, President Biden’s top Middle East adviser, participated in the discussions in both Cairo and Doha. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, speaking at a press conference in China on Thursday, commented that the discussions had advanced to detailed negotiations, which is a positive indicator of progress, but emphasized that “nothing is done until it’s done.”
Exchanging hostages and prisoners
Negotiators this week mainly focused on the process of exchanging hostages held by Hamas for Palestinians in Israeli prisons. White House spokesman John Kirby explained that the details include the nature of the exchange, the number of individuals involved, who will be released on each side, and the pace of these exchanges.
The draft deal indicates that Hamas would release 33 living hostages, who are either women, men over the age of 50, or in serious medical condition. If there are not 33 living hostages, Hamas would fulfill this number by returning the bodies of deceased hostages. Israeli officials reported that mediators recently provided Hamas with a list from Israel of over three dozen hostages considered to fall into these categories.
As part of the draft deal, Israel is anticipated to release several hundred Palestinian prisoners, including 150 who are serving life sentences for murdering Israelis. Israel seeks the authority to veto the release of 65 prisoners and insists that none of the prisoners serving life sentences should return to the West Bank or Gaza.
Recently, Hamas, through mediators, provided Israel with a list of some prisoners it wants to be released. The negotiators in Cairo and Doha have begun discussing each of these cases, although Israeli officials noted that while there is no final agreement on who will be released from either side, there has been notable progress on the matter.
Netanyahu facing pressure from hostages’ families
Netanyahu has pledged to achieve complete victory over Hamas and to secure the release of all hostages held in Gaza. He faces significant pressure from the hostages’ families and a large portion of the Israeli public to negotiate a deal to bring them back, even if it results in weakened but surviving Hamas. The United States, which has been a critical provider of military aid and diplomatic support to Israel, is also advocating for such a deal.
However, Netanyahu’s governing coalition includes far-right ministers who have threatened to topple the government if he makes too many concessions. This could lead to early elections, potentially removing him from power while he is undergoing a corruption trial.
Such a scenario would also accelerate a wider reckoning over the security lapses related to the October 7 attack, during which Hamas-led terrorists killed approximately 1,200 people in southern Israel, primarily civilians, and abducted around 250 others—an incident that occurred under Netanyahu’s leadership. Netanyahu has resisted demands for a government inquiry until the war concludes.
Both Israel and Hamas claim to have agreed in principle to different versions of a U.S.-supported cease-fire proposal, while suggesting modifications and accusing each other of making unreasonable demands.
Sinwar seeks to end the war, but only on his own terms
Israel’s offensive has resulted in the deaths of over 40,000 people, according to local health officials. Hamas has suffered significant losses.
Sinwar’s primary bargaining tool is the approximately 110 hostages still held in Gaza, with around a third presumed dead. He demands assurances that Israel will not restart the war after some or all of the hostages are released. The release of prominent Palestinian prisoners as part of any agreement is crucial for Sinwar, who was previously a long-term prisoner released in an exchange. He also needs guarantees that Palestinians will be able to return to their homes and rebuild.
However, extending the talks carries risks for Sinwar: more hostages may die or be rescued as the conflict continues, and ongoing death, destruction, and suffering in Gaza could increase Palestinian dissatisfaction with Hamas, with potential political repercussions in the future.
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