Facing weak polling numbers and mounting pressure to resign as party leader before the next general elections, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party are confronting a pivotal challenge in the upcoming by-elections in Montreal, according to Al Jazeera. The area has long been a Liberal stronghold, but the upcoming vote on Monday arrives at a challenging time for Trudeau. His popularity is declining due to inflation and a worsening housing crisis, adding pressure to the crucial by-election.
Polls show a close race between the Liberals, Bloc Quebecois, and the New Democratic Party (NDP) in the electoral district (known in Canada as a riding) of Lasalle-Emard-Verdun.
Political analysts describe the by-election as a “litmus test” for the Liberal Party, which could foreshadow their performance in the next general election, expected before October 2025.
Rick Bisaillon, a political science professor at Concordia University, remarked, “It’s absolutely indispensable for the Liberals to hang onto this seat.”
Trudeau’s troubles are compounded by the NDP’s decision to withdraw from a 2022 agreement that helped keep his minority government afloat.
While dumping the Liberals, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh criticised Trudeau, stating, “Justin Trudeau has proven again and again he will always cave to corporate greed. The Liberals have let people down. They don’t deserve another chance.”
Amid struggling numbders, the Liberal Party is also suffering from internal dissent. Some Liberal MPs and staff have expressed frustration with Trudeau’s leadership, reported Al Jazeera.
In June, a Liberal MP publicly urged Trudeau to step down following a by-election loss in Toronto. Others, upset by the government’s stance on international issues, have declined to assist with the Montreal campaign.
Benoit Frenette, a resident from Verdun, expressed his disappointment with the government, saying, “Right now, there’s a lot of dissatisfaction with Mr. Trudeau’s government, and that’s probably going to be felt.”
“I’m more of a nationalist at heart, so in that context, the Bloc Quebecois is an option I’m considering,” he added.
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Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer at the University of British Columbia, warned that a Liberal loss could mark a significant shift. Prest stated, “If they are unable to hold onto this riding… it gives fresh ammunition to those who are saying it’s time for a significant change in the Liberal Party.” A poll on Thursday found that the Bloc Quebecois candidate in Lasalle-Emard-Verdun had a lead over the Liberal and NDP candidates, while the Conservatives trailed far behind the pack. Bloc Quebecois leads with 29.6 per cent of the vote, while the Liberals trail at 24.1 per cent. The NDP is just behind with 23 per cent, and the Conservatives lag far behind at 7.3 per cent, as reported by the Al Jazeera.
Notably, PM Trudeau has been insisting that he will stay on as leader through the next election. “Ready for Parliament’s return next week,” he wrote in a social media post on Wednesday.
But, Prest at the University of British Columbia believes that a Liberal loss on Monday could end up being a “turning point” for the party.
“Are they willing to continue to fight under this leader, or would you start to see stronger calls from within the party for a change in leadership?” he asked.
“It will be fascinating to watch, if the Liberals fail to keep the seat, if indeed the MPs are essentially jolted into action or if they continue to turn their attention elsewhere and the Liberals continue to seemingly coast towards the inevitable defeat” in the next election.
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