India has officially sought a review of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), a water-sharing agreement established in 1960 with Pakistan and facilitated by the World Bank.
On August 30, New Delhi issued a notice to Islamabad in accordance with Article XII(3) of the treaty, according to reports. The notification from India indicates that there have been significant and unforeseen changes in circumstances that necessitate a reevaluation of the treaty’s obligations, according to unnamed sources cited in the report.
The shared waters
The two countries share the waters of six rivers as outlined in the IWT, with India allocated the waters of the eastern rivers—the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi—while Pakistan receives the three western rivers—the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
Pakistan claims that India is consistently violating the treaty by constructing dams on the western rivers. Meanwhile, India contends that Pakistan has control over more water than it does due to the treaty’s provisions.
Additionally, India is facing a water dispute with China regarding the construction of dams and the proposed diversion of the Brahmaputra River, which originates in Tibet and is crucial for a significant portion of India’s irrigation needs.
What Is Indus Water Treaty?
In 1947, the partition line not only established geographical borders for India and Pakistan but also divided the Indus river system. Both nations relied on the Indus river basin to maintain their irrigation systems, necessitating a fair distribution of water.
Initially, the Inter-dominion accord of May 1948 was put in place, wherein both countries agreed, after a conference, that India would provide water to Pakistan in exchange for an annual payment. However, this agreement quickly fell apart as the two nations struggled to reach a consensus on its interpretation.
In 1951, amid the ongoing water-sharing conflict, both countries sought funding from the World Bank for their irrigation projects on the Indus and its tributaries. During this time, the World Bank offered to facilitate negotiations. Ultimately, after nearly a decade of research, discussions, and revisions proposed by the World Bank, an agreement was achieved in 1960. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was signed by India’s then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan’s President Ayub Khan, with the former Vice President of the World Bank, W.A.B. Iliff, also signing on behalf of the organization.
Indus Water Treaty important provisions
The treaty contains several important provisions. The Indus river basin comprises six rivers: the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. These rivers originate in Tibet, flow through the Himalayas, and eventually reach Pakistan, concluding near Karachi.
The treaty specified the allocation of water from these six rivers between India and Pakistan. It granted Pakistan unrestricted use of the three western rivers—Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum—while India was allowed unrestricted use of the three eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. As a result, approximately 80% of the water, or about 135 Million Acre Feet (MAF), was allocated to Pakistan, leaving India with the remaining 20%, or 33 MAF.
Permanent Indus Commission
The agreement also mandated both countries to create a Permanent Indus Commission, composed of permanent commissioners from each side. This commission serves as a platform for sharing information about the rivers, fostering ongoing cooperation, and acting as the initial avenue for conflict resolution.
While Pakistan holds rights to the waters of the Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus rivers, Annexure C of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) permits India certain agricultural uses of these waters. Additionally, Annexure D allows India to develop ‘run of the river’ hydropower projects, which do not require water storage. The treaty outlines specific design criteria that India must adhere to for these projects.
The treaty also empowers Pakistan to raise concerns regarding India’s projects if they do not conform to the agreed specifications. India is obligated to inform Pakistan about any design changes or project details, and Pakistan must raise any objections within three months of receiving this information.
Moreover, India is permitted to maintain a minimum storage level on the western rivers, allowing it to store up to 3.75 million acre-feet (MAF) of water for conservation and flood control.
Pakistan’s concerns
The IWT has been recognized internationally as a significant diplomatic achievement that has endured three wars and numerous military standoffs, with both nations generally adhering to its terms. However, it has not been free from disputes.
Over the years, Pakistan has voiced numerous objections under the treaty regarding Indian hydropower and dam projects on the western rivers. For instance, a notable conflict arose concerning the Kishenganga Hydro Electricity Project (KHEP), which was originally designed as a storage and hydropower project.
The Kishenganga, also known as Neelum, is a tributary of the Jhelum River that originates in Jammu and Kashmir and flows into Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Work on KHEP began in 2007, with plans to construct a dam on the Kishenganga to divert its water for a 330 MW hydropower facility in Bandipora, Kashmir, and then return it. Although the project was intended for completion by 2016, Pakistan raised concerns about the dam’s height, worrying that it would increase India’s water storage capacity. In response, India modified the design, reducing the dam’s height from 97 meters to 37 meters.
Disputes on Kishenganga Hydroelectricity Project
In 2010, Pakistan escalated the issue to the International Court of Arbitration in The Hague, objecting to the water diversion from Kishenganga. The court ruled in December 2013, permitting India to proceed with the project under specific conditions.
The dispute persisted, with Pakistan approaching the World Bank in 2016 and again in 2018 to contest the project’s design. Pakistan also attempted to halt construction in 2016 by shelling near the dam site. The KHEP was eventually inaugurated in 2018 despite ongoing protests from Pakistan.
Regarding India’s 850 MW Ratle hydroelectric power project on the Chenab River, Pakistan has consistently expressed concerns about its design, asserting that the project’s reservoir could be used to create artificial water shortages or cause flooding in Pakistan.
Pakistan’s intransigence re Indus Water Treaty
India’s recent call for amendments to the treaty stems from what it refers to as Pakistan’s “intransigence” in implementing the agreement.
The IWT includes a three-tier dispute resolution mechanism, allowing issues to be addressed at the Permanent Commission or escalated to inter-government discussions. Should disputes remain unresolved, either side can request the World Bank to appoint a Neutral Expert (NE) for a decision. If dissatisfaction persists or if there are disputes regarding the treaty’s interpretation, matters can be escalated to a Court of Arbitration.
India contends that the disagreements regarding the two projects have been developing since 2015 when Pakistan sought the appointment of a Neutral Expert to address its objections. In 2016, Pakistan shifted its request to call for arbitration. India subsequently requested its own Neutral Expert appointment.
India claims that Pakistan’s unilateral change of its dispute resolution approach violates the IWT. Recently, the World Bank has acted on both requests—for a Neutral Expert and arbitration. Indian officials noted that having parallel proceedings on the same issues is not addressed in the IWT.
Proposed modifications to the Treaty
To address the ongoing dispute, India has proposed modifications to the Treaty, suggesting that Pakistan should have the opportunity to initiate “intergovernmental negotiations” within 90 days concerning what India has termed a “material breach.” It was indicated that this process would also help modernize the IWT based on lessons learned over the past 62 years.
Observers note that the treaty has increasingly become a source of discontent between the two countries due to rising water demands, the complex technical nature of the agreement, and the fact that the western rivers flow through the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir.
In the past, Pakistan raised concerns about the Salal dam project in 1970 due to design issues, with negotiations concluding in 1978. This was followed by objections to the 900 MW Baglihar Hydropower project, which involved building a 150-meter tall dam on the Chenab. Construction began in 1999, but Pakistan soon objected, ultimately threatening to invoke the arbitration clause of the IWT. The appointed Neutral Expert, Swiss engineer Raymond Lafitte, issued a decision in 2007, upholding some of Pakistan’s objections while dismissing others.
During the 2022 meeting, Pakistan was expected to raise objections regarding three Indian hydropower projects in the Chenab basin in Jammu and Kashmir—the 1000 MW Pakal Dul project, the 48 MW Lower Kalnai project, and the 624 MW Kiru project, among others. India, however, maintains that all these projects comply fully with the IWT.
Geopolitical tensions and Indus Water Treaty
In recent years, the IWT has been a focal point during geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. Following the attack on the Uri army camp in Jammu and Kashmir in 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi indicated that both water and blood could not coexist, leading to the suspension of discussions at the Permanent Indus Commission that year, with India threatening to withdraw from the treaty.
Again in 2019, in the wake of a suicide attack in Pulwama that resulted in the deaths of 40 CRPF personnel, India hinted for the first time at cutting off water supplies to Pakistan from the Indus River System. Water Resources Minister Nitin Gadkari mentioned that India might stop its water share flowing to Pakistan while diverting water from the eastern rivers for use in Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab. However, he later clarified that such actions would violate the IWT and require the consideration of the highest levels of government.
The IWT lacks a provision for unilateral exit and is intended to remain in effect unless both nations ratify a mutually agreed agreement.
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