As the November 5 election approaches, a bold prediction from Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller has made waves. Having accurately forecast the 2020 presidential race, Miller now predicts a significant win for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in her showdown with Donald Trump.
Kamala Harris Leading in Popular Vote
According to Miller’s model, Harris is expected to capture 55% of the popular vote by September, placing her in a strong position in the Electoral College. He shared this forecast in an interview with Fortune Magazine, stating, “It’s gone from a drastic landslide in Trump’s direction to a drastic landslide for Harris.”
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Miller’s prediction method relies on betting markets rather than traditional polling, using betting prices to estimate both the popular vote and the Electoral College outcome. This approach, which he developed over the course of 16 presidential contests, highlights a weak link between betting odds and the popular vote.
Harris Gains Momentum Despite Earlier Trump Lead
Harris’ popularity has been climbing in recent months, despite Trump taking a lead over Joe Biden in June. The dynamics of the race have shifted dramatically since Biden’s withdrawal, positioning Harris as the leading Democratic candidate.
Key Swing States: Harris Outpacing Trump
Recent polling data supports Miller’s predictions, especially in crucial swing states. A Quinnipiac University poll revealed Harris leading Trump by six points in Pennsylvania, with 51% of voters supporting her compared to Trump’s 45%.
Similarly, Michigan voters favor Harris by five points, with 50% backing the Democratic nominee, while Trump garners 45%. In Wisconsin, the race is even tighter, with Harris leading by just one point, 48% to Trump’s 47%.
Influential Support from Taylor Swift
Adding to the momentum, pop icon Taylor Swift publicly endorsed Kamala Harris after the vice president’s first debate with Trump. Swift’s support has further energized the Harris campaign, particularly among younger voters, as the race intensifies ahead of the election.
Miller’s Methodology: Betting Markets Over Traditional Polls
Miller’s unconventional forecasting model, which turned betting prices into electoral predictions, offers a fresh perspective on the election. His analysis shows that Harris’ growing appeal aligns with recent polling data, painting a favorable picture for the Democratic candidate as the election draws nearer.
While much can change in the weeks leading up to November 5, Miller’s prediction suggests that Harris is on track for a notable victory, with key swing states playing a pivotal role in deciding the final outcome.
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