In just a few hours, President Joe Biden will host his final Quad summit, a meeting that may also mark the last for Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who is set to step down. As leaders from the US, India, Japan, and Australia convene in Wilmington, Delaware, the focus will be on reinforcing the Quad’s vision, but there are underlying questions about the future, particularly with the US presidential elections looming in November.
Modi to Brief Biden on Ukraine and Russia Talks
Before the formal Quad discussions, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to brief Biden on his recent conversations with Ukrainian leaders in Kyiv and with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Whether this could lead to any breakthrough in peace negotiations remains uncertain, with many experts suggesting that any significant progress will likely wait until after the US elects a new president in November.
A “Lame Duck” Summit? Not Quite
While some may view the Delaware event as lacking in significance due to Biden’s “lame duck” status, the Quad enjoys bipartisan support in the US, ensuring its continued relevance regardless of electoral outcomes. The summit signals to interested parties—particularly China—that the Quad’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific remains strong.
Although India had the turn to host this year’s summit, it chose not to push for a location change, possibly due to Modi’s cautious approach with the US elections around the corner.
Institutionalising the Quad
One of the major agenda points for this summit is the institutionalisation of the Quad as a more formal alliance. According to Professor Srikanth Kondapalli of Jawaharlal Nehru University, the lack of a dedicated secretariat has hindered progress on many Quad initiatives, with decisions often left in limbo. “After seven foreign ministerial meetings, 2+2 dialogues with all members, and four summit-level meetings, the lack of follow-up on joint statements has been a significant issue,” he said.
For instance, despite decisions made at the Tokyo summit, cooperation between the Quad’s coast guards to curb illegal fishing—primarily by Chinese fleets—has seen little progress. These fleets, often engaged in surveillance activities, present an opportunity for the Quad to challenge Beijing’s regional dominance.
Slow Progress on Technology and Education Initiatives
The Quad has also seen limited movement on other critical initiatives, such as advancements in Quantum computing and 5G technology. A scholarship program designed to offer 100 scholarships annually to students from Quad member countries has been slow to launch, while the Vaccine Initiative, which aimed to deliver one billion vaccines, has struggled to gain traction.
India’s Reluctance on the Maritime Initiative
India has been cautious about fully embracing the Quad’s maritime initiative, largely due to concerns over the military implications and possible backlash from China. However, there is growing recognition that maritime cooperation is one of the Quad’s core strengths.
Professor Kondapalli suggests a compromise, noting, “Perhaps Quad members can exercise in the Pacific rather than the South China Sea, where Beijing may be less sensitive. These exercises could later shift to the South China Sea when necessary.”
Australia’s Perspective: Strategic, Not Military
Australia’s High Commissioner to India, Philip Green, echoed a similar sentiment during the Bharat Shakti India Defence Conclave, emphasizing that while the Quad is not a military alliance, it can still have a significant strategic impact. “If we are able to demonstrate to the countries of the region that we are providing them with the capacity to understand their maritime domains better, that has a strategic impact,” Green said.
He also stressed the importance of linking regions through trade and human engagement, calling for infrastructure development to facilitate better interaction.
Verma Dispels Military Concerns
Richard Verma, the former US ambassador to India and current deputy secretary of state for management and resources, recently addressed concerns over the Quad’s military role. Speaking at the Hudson Institute, he clarified, “I don’t think it (Quad) has to take on a military character. Indians are not supportive of that. Frankly, I don’t think we need that. I think there are other venues to deal with core military issues.”
Verma also expressed optimism about the future of the Quad, calling this weekend’s summit “quite significant” and “historic,” noting that the alliance will continue to grow in various ways, solidifying its role in regional security and cooperation.
What to Expect from the Summit
As the summit unfolds, all eyes will be on President Biden’s remarks about “strategic convergence” among Quad members. With China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, the need for clear coordination between the four nations has never been more urgent. The outcome of this summit could set the tone for how the Quad addresses both immediate and long-term challenges in the region, even as leaders navigate the complexities of upcoming elections and leadership transitions.
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