As Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) heads to a crucial election phase, political expert and senior journalist Himanshu Bhatt has offered insightful predictions on the possible outcomes of the state’s assembly elections in this exclusive NewsX Expertometer. His analysis highlights the emerging trends among key political players and sheds light on what could be one of the most significant elections for the region in the past decade.
NC-Congress Alliance to Lead with 35 Seats
Bhatt stated that he believed that there’s not going to be a half-way mark which is going to be breached by anyone. According to Bhatt’s forecast, the NC-Congress alliance is poised to emerge as the largest political bloc in Jammu and Kashmir, securing approximately 45 seats in the 90-member assembly. This significant lead reflects the enduring popularity of NC-Congress in the region, particularly in the Kashmir Valley, where voters have traditionally supported the alliance.
The partnership between Omar Abdullah’s National Conference and the Congress has gained momentum in the past few months, with their campaign focusing on regional autonomy, economic development, and the restoration of statehood. If Bhatt’s predictions hold, the NC-Congress alliance will be in a strong position to influence the formation of the next government in Jammu and Kashmir.
BJP Set for Strong Showing with 25-28 Seats
While the NC-Congress is predicted to lead, the BJP is not far behind, with Bhatt estimating the party will secure between 35 to 40 seats. The BJP, which has made significant inroads in Jammu and Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370, is expected to maintain its dominance in the Jammu region, where its pro-development and national security rhetoric resonates strongly with voters.
The BJP’s campaign, spearheaded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other senior leaders, has focused on economic reforms, infrastructure development, and counter-terrorism measures. These policies have appealed to a large section of the electorate in Jammu, positioning the BJP as a formidable contender in the region’s political landscape.
JKPDP and Others to Share the Remaining Seats
Bhatt predicts that the Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (JKPDP), once a major player in state politics, is likely to secure 5 seats. Under the leadership of Mehbooba Mufti, the JKPDP has struggled to regain the political ground it once held, particularly after its coalition with the BJP collapsed in 2018. However, the party still maintains a loyal voter base in parts of the Kashmir Valley, particularly in south Kashmir, which could contribute to its modest seat tally.
Other parties and independent candidates are expected to claim 8 to 10 seats in total. These could include smaller regional parties and independent figures who may play a crucial role in post-election negotiations and alliances, especially if no single party or alliance achieves a clear majority.
VIP Candidates Expected to Win: Ravinder Raina, Omar Abdullah, Iltija Mufti
In addition to the seat share predictions, Bhatt has also weighed in on the potential outcomes for key candidates. According to him, Ravinder Raina, the current president of the BJP in Jammu and Kashmir, is expected to win his seat, bolstering the party’s influence in the region.
Omar Abdullah, former chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir and a prominent leader of the NC, is predicted to win from his traditional stronghold in Ganderbal. Abdullah’s leadership within the NC has been instrumental in the party’s resurgence, and his victory would further solidify the NC-Congress alliance’s position.
Another high-profile candidate, Iltija Mufti, daughter of JKPDP chief Mehbooba Mufti, is also expected to secure a win. Iltija, who has recently emerged as a strong political voice, has been seen as the torchbearer of her mother’s legacy, particularly among the youth in Kashmir. Her victory would mark a significant moment in the political landscape of the region.
Conclusion: A Dynamic Electoral Landscape
Himanshu Bhatt’s predictions suggest that while the NC-Congress alliance is expected to take the lead, the BJP remains a powerful force in Jammu and Kashmir’s political future. The results could lead to a period of negotiations and coalition-building, with no single party expected to win a decisive majority. The success of key candidates like Ravinder Raina, Omar Abdullah, and Iltija Mufti will further shape the direction of the state’s political environment in the months to come.
As Jammu and Kashmir waits for the final results, Bhatt’s analysis provides a valuable glimpse into the possible outcomes, setting the stage for what could be a transformative election for the region. The official results will be declared on October 8, when the people of Jammu and Kashmir will find out if these predictions come true.
