In a significant escalation, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conducted intense strikes in Beirut, Lebanon, killing 27 people and wounding 93 in a midnight assault that marked a heightened phase in the regional conflict. For the first time, Israel also struck Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon’s northern regions, targeting both Hezbollah and Hamas forces.
In these attacks, two prominent Hamas leaders, Muhammed Hussein Ali A Mahmoud, a high-ranking executive in Lebanon, and Alaa Naif Ali, responsible for attacks against Israel, were eliminated. The IDF additionally released footage of the army identifying and sealing a Hezbollah tunnel in Lebanese territory, aiming to thwart arms transfers and movements.
In an exclusive conversation with NewsX Editor, Uday Pratap Singh, Gautam Mukherjee, Senior journalist, Major General (Ret.) Sudhakar Jee, defense expert, Ambassador Anil Trigunayat, former diplomat, and Dr Swati Rao, MP-IDSA, shared their views on the ongoing situation in Lebanon and the broader geopolitical implications of this conflict.
Gautam Mukherjee: “Good time for Israel to take it to the logical conclusion.”
Gautam Mukherjee, Senior journalist, offered a strategic perspective on Israel’s approach, arguing that a ceasefire may only serve to empower groups like Hezbollah. “I don’t think Israel has any choice because if it…goes in for a ceasefire like many people are asking, then Hezbollah will come back in full force,” he stated.
He noted that although some Hezbollah leaders have been eliminated, the organisation remains resilient, poised to regroup if pressure relents. “This is also a good time for Israel to take it to the logical conclusion, even with Iran,” he added.
Sudhakar Jee: “It is not going to end so soon.”
Major General (Ret.) Sudhakar Jee, a defence expert, stated “Today, October 7th, there is a window—a span of about 8 to 10 hours—where anything devastating could happen.”
He added, “ the world is polarized, every country is militarized, and the cost of living has risen so sharply that the leading economies of the Global North suffer just as much as those of the Global South.”
Anil Trigunayat: “Psychological warfare through the pager operations”
Ambassador Anil Trigunayat, a former diplomat, states that Israel’s strategy also involves an element of psychological warfare aimed at destabilizing Hezbollah’s leadership structure. “They [Israel] tried to have psychological warfare through the pager operations…as well as taking out the top leadership of Hezbollah,” he explained. The ambassador warned, however, that this approach could lead to an even more fragmented Hezbollah, with smaller commanders taking charge across various arsenals, which could further complicate stabilization efforts.
Dr. Swasti Rao: “Distinction between what is desirable and what is achievable.”
Dr. Swasti Rao, a scholar with the MP-IDSA think tank, emphasised the need for nuanced perspectives on Israel’s regional ambitions, suggesting that Israel’s actions may seek to reshape the strategic landscape without direct confrontation with Iran.
“We need to somewhere make a distinction between what is desirable and what is achievable,” she argued.
Dr. Rao noted that despite years of indirect conflict through proxies, Israel and Iran have avoided direct military confrontation. “The shadow War has…had secret sabotage, assassinations, and it’s basically carried out by proxy,” she explained.
Dr. Rao added that while attacks on Iran’s oil infrastructure are theoretically possible, they are unlikely due to the far-reaching impacts such escalations would have on global oil markets. “Last two months alone… we have seen a kind of a jump in oil prices…I do not see an all-out attack on Iran’s oil facilities,” she remarked, pointing to the economic risks of an expanded conflict.
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