The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), once a dominant political force in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), is bracing for its worst electoral performance since its inception 25 years ago. Originally founded in 1999 by former chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, the PDP has seen its political standing deteriorate significantly, particularly in the wake of recent assembly elections.
The party, which emerged as the single-largest party in the 2014 J&K elections and formed a government in coalition with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) until 2018, is currently leading on only two seats in the ongoing election cycle. In stark contrast, its chief rival, the National Conference (NC), is ahead on 42 of the 90 seats. The NC, in alliance with the Congress, appears poised to establish the first government in J&K since the region’s semi-autonomous status was revoked and it was reorganized into two Union territories following the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019.
The Loss of Key Seats and Leadership
One of the most significant blows to the PDP’s reputation came with the electoral defeat of Iltija Mufti, daughter of party chief and former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti, in their traditional stronghold of Bijbehara. This loss adds to a troubling trend for the party, which failed to secure any seats during the national elections earlier this year, capturing a mere 8.45% of the total votes. The NC, on the other hand, performed robustly in the Lok Sabha elections, winning two of the three seats in the Kashmir Valley with a vote share of 22.2%. Notably, Mehbooba Mufti suffered a defeat by a staggering margin of 181,000 votes in the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency.
Increasing Competition from Independent Candidates
The PDP’s position has been further weakened by the emergence of independent candidates backed by Jamaat-e-Islami, particularly in South Kashmir, where the PDP previously held considerable sway. This organization, which was banned in 2019, had historically supported the PDP, adding another layer of complexity to the current electoral landscape.
Erosion of Support: A Historical Context
The decline of the PDP’s support base can be traced back to 2016, a year marked by widespread public outrage over the killings of civilians during protests following the death of Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani. This period ignited significant resentment toward the PDP’s alliance with the BJP, leading to a loss of credibility among its constituents. The abrogation of the region’s semi-autonomous status, coupled with state lockdowns, internet suspensions, and the detention of political leaders, exacerbated public dissatisfaction with the party.
Despite these challenges, Mehbooba Mufti was ironically held accountable for state-sponsored violence during the post-2016 unrest, despite her previous popularity as a leader advocating against alleged abuses during counter-insurgency operations in the early 2000s.
Reflections on Political Alliances
Waheed-ur-Rehman Para, one of the few PDP candidates who appeared poised to win their assembly seats, candidly reflected on the consequences of the party’s alliance with the BJP, labeling it as “suicidal.” “It was an alliance of two parallel lines. But its motive was not government formation but to soothe the pain of Kashmiris and start a dialogue between Delhi and Srinagar.”
As the PDP faces this historic low in its electoral journey, the future of the party remains uncertain, and the implications for J&K’s political landscape could be profound. The upcoming days will likely reveal the extent of the PDP’s losses and the potential for new political alignments in the region.
