The 2024 Result
Here’s where the numbers stand. Haryana has 90 seats. The halfway mark is 46. The BJP has secured 48 seats with a 40% vote share, Congress has won 37 seats with a 39% vote share, and INLD has bagged 2 seats with a 4% vote share. The JJP got less than 1% of the votes and stands at 0 seats, while 3 independent candidates secured the remaining seats. AAP, BSP, and Azad Samaj Party have all been rejected by the voters of Haryana.
Before understanding what worked for the BJP, it’s crucial to look at Haryana’s past voting patterns. In 2014, the BJP won 7 out of the 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana, INLD won a single seat, and Congress bagged the remaining two seats. But in the same year, BJP won 47 out of the 90 seats in Haryana with a vote share of 33% and emerged as the single largest party. This was a huge deal for the BJP. Remember, in 2009, BJP was reduced to 4 seats in Haryana. In 2014, INLD came second with 19 seats and a vote share of 24% and Congress, which has the previous government, came third with 15 seats and a vote share of 21%.
Let’s also look at 2019. The BJP was able to further consolidate its popularity in Haryana. It won all 10 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha Polls, wiping out the Congress and INLD. The 2019 assembly polls had a different result. The BJP, despite its clean sweep of the state in the Lok Sabha Polls, won 40 out of the 90 seats, even though it increased its vote share to 37%. The Congress made a comeback with 31 seats and an increased vote share of 28%. The INLD was nearly wiped out. It got 1 seat with a vote share of 3%. The major shift in these polls was the entry of Dushyant Chautala’s JJP, which became the kingmaker party. Securing a vote share of 15%, JJP managed to bag 10 seats, denting mainly the BJP and the INLD. BJP formed a government with Dushyant Chautala’s JJP and six independents in 2019.
How BJP Won Haryana in 2024
#1: Voters Vote Differently
Haryana has proven again that voters don’t vote for Lok Sabha and Assembly polls the same way. Even this time, in 2024, the BJP won 5 out of the 10 Lok Sabha seats, and Congress bagged the remaining 5, which boosted the latter’s confidence vis a vis the October assembly polls. But, the result proves that the voter in Haryana has different considerations when voting for different elections.
#2: The Non-Jat Vote
The BJP’s efforts to consolidate the upper caste Non-Jat vote have worked. Jats make up over 25% of the population, and the BJP focus has been on the remaining 75% of the population. Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC leader of the BJP in Haryana, was made Chief Minister this year, which helped send a positive message to the 40% OBC population of Haryana. BJP gave 20 tickets to OBC leaders, 50 tickets to Brahmins, Rajputs, and Punjabis who make up the general category and roughly 20% of the population.
#3: A Divided SC Vote
Dalits make up 21% of Haryana’s population. Of this, the Jatavs make up 50% of the SC vote and are historically aligned with the Congress, which relies on the Jat-Jatav equation. Valmiki’s are roughly 25% of the population, and Dhanaks are about 10%. Both of these sub-castes are known to be BJP supporters. Interestingly, in this election, the SC vote was divided further because the two Dalit parties, BSP and Azad Samaj Party, although not big players, fought the elections with INLD and JJP respectively. This split in the SC votebank has impacted the Congress more than the BJP.
#4: Fresh Faces Vs. Infighting
BJP faced a major setback when it couldn’t come up with a seat sharing formula with its ally JJP for the 2024 Lok Sabha Polls. The JJP pulled support, but the BJP was quick to salvage the situation. Manohar Lal Khattar, BJP’s CM of 9 years, was made to step down, and a fresh face in Nayab Singh Saini was made CM. Saini has been a party loyalist for decades, and his selection was a crucial message to the party ground workers, especially ahead of assembly polls. BJP’s poor Lok Sabha performance also pushed the party to choose over 50 new faces for the Haryana assembly elections, which told the voters that the party is willing to work on anti-incumbency charges In fact, Manohar Khattar was barely even seen campaigning for the assembly polls, furthering the BJP’s message of ushering change to the masses.
In contrast, Congress re-nominated 17 candidates who had lost earlier. The Congress was also not able to give confidence to the voter over who the CM would be if the party wins. Yhe BJP put all its weight behind Nayab Singh Saini and it’s fresh faces. But there was a power tussle within the Congress, between a former Jat CM Bhupinder Hooda and Congress’ Jatav MP Kumari Selja. It’s also believed that Bhupinder Hooda gave the majority of the 90 tickets to his loyalists to bolster his own position if the party did win.
#5: Fragmented Opposition & Vote Share
Congress couldn’t come to a seat sharing formula with AAP, which many believe was a disadvantage for the grand old party. Even though AAP couldn’t secure a single seat in Haryana, it’s vote share is nearly 2%. Similarly, the other regional parties – INLD, JJP, BSP, and Azad Samaj Party – got a collective vote share of nearly 7%. If some of the opposition parties would’ve consolidated their vote share, maybe it would’ve made a difference to the overall numbers.
#6: Regional Parties Collapse
Dushyant Chautala’s JJP, which bagged 10 seats in the last election and turned kingmaker, has been reduced to 0 this time. Remember Chautala’s party was a split from the INLD and competed for mostly the same voter base. JJP’s glory has clearly been short-lived. The regional parties will have to work much harder and perhaps even attempt to break into the BJP’s vote bank if they want to return to the Haryana assembly, let alone be kingmakers.
#7: Consolidation on Ground
The Congress was relying on the fact that it won 5 out of the 10 Lok Sabha seats in 2024, in a way, defeating the BJP. Congress read the 2024 Lok Sabha result only in the context of the turmoil the BJP faced earlier this year, assuming that the voter was upset with the BJP-JJP government episode While that may have been true, the BJP started its campaign early in Haryana. Amid the turmoil, they shifted the voters’ focus to ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’, as it got its house back in order. Nayab Saini’s leadership gave a further impetus to the party karyakartas to work their magic on the ground. The BJP also held about 150 rallies, which is twice as many compared to the Congress’ 70. It’s clear that Congress was late in hitting the ground and failed to build upon its Lok Sabha victory.
Is this election verdict BJP’s win or the Congress’ loss? Well, it’s a bit of both. Why the Congress wasn’t able to convince the voter of Haryana that it is the better choice against the BJP, which has ruled for ten years, is something the party will have to introspect on.
On the other hand, BJP’s win possibly marks a new era in a democracy that continues to mature. Risk-ladden strategies, which may seem like a gamble to most old-school political parties, seem to have given BJP the edge. Beyond the caste analysis, silent acceptance of its faults, newer faces, and boosted ground workers is what led the BJP to secure a historic hatrick in Haryana.
