Hurricane Milton transformed from a Category 1 to a Category 5 hurricane within hours due to rapid intensification. The National Hurricane Center has issued warnings that Milton could gain even more strength and size, indicating it poses “even more danger” to coastal regions. Expected to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday night, Milton is likely to hit near Tampa, a metropolitan area with over three million residents.
Officials are bracing for potential havoc, including heavy rain, flash flooding, high winds, and dangerous storm surges, which occur when seawater moves inland.
Expert Insights On Hurricane Milton
AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva, notes that “the ocean heat content is at the highest level on record for this time of year in the Gulf of Mexico,” giving Milton the “rocket fuel” it needs for further intensification. In response to the looming threat, Florida officials have implemented one of the largest evacuation efforts in recent years. Tampa Mayor Jane Castor starkly warned, “If residents choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you’re gonna die.”
The storm follows closely on the heels of Hurricane Helene, another severe storm that wreaked havoc in the southeastern U.S., leaving many areas, including Florida, still in recovery. Mayor Castor referred to Helene as a “wake-up call,” adding that Milton could potentially be “literally catastrophic.”
The Case For A Category 6
As rapid intensification becomes increasingly common, scientists are advocating for a new storm classification. The existing Saffir-Simpson scale, which categorizes storms based on wind speeds, has been in use for over 50 years and includes:
- Category 1: 74-95 mph
- Category 2: 96-110 mph
- Category 3: 111-129 mph
- Category 4: 130-156 mph
- Category 5: 157 mph or higher
The issue lies in the open-ended nature of Category 5; any storm with wind speeds above 157 mph falls into this category. Experts argue this may lead to an underestimation of risk, particularly as climate change results in more powerful hurricanes.
Climate scientists Michael Wehner and Jim Kossin highlight that hurricanes have intensified due to warmer ocean temperatures, stating, “The open-endedness of the Saffir-Simpson scale can lead to underestimation of risk.” Their research indicates that several storms since 1980 could have warranted a Category 6 designation, including Hurricane Patricia and Typhoon Haiyan, which exceeded wind speeds of 192 mph.
Meanwhile, studies suggest that with a 2°C rise in global temperatures, the frequency of storms reaching Category 6 wind speeds could increase by 50% near the Philippines and double in the Gulf of Mexico. In a more extreme 4°C warming scenario, the risks could triple.
