Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine has resulted in an estimated 600,000 casualties, surpassing the total number of Russian military losses in every campaign since World War II. U.S. officials revealed that September was the deadliest month for Russian forces, with significant casualties from both combat deaths and injuries.
Heavy Losses for Russia, but No Clear Indicator of Victory for Ukraine
A senior U.S. defense official highlighted that Russian casualties in the first year of the conflict exceeded the total Soviet casualties in any campaign post-World War II. However, while these steep losses are concerning, the official cautioned that casualty counts are not necessarily a definitive measure of success for Ukraine, as the country has also sustained significant losses, although these figures remain undisclosed by the U.S.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy estimated that around 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed as of February. Meanwhile, the U.K. Ministry of Defence reported that Russia’s daily casualty rate in September was approximately 1,271, totaling around 648,000 casualties for Russia over the course of the conflict.
The Russian Tactics: Mass Deployment and High Losses
The U.S. official suggested that Russia’s approach to combat — deploying large numbers of troops despite heavy casualties — was a pattern that would likely continue, resulting in ongoing high losses. Russia’s strategy is considered one of attrition, where large-scale troop deployments are used in an attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.
South Korea recently indicated that North Korean troops have joined Russian forces in Ukraine, further complicating the situation.
Russia’s Military Losses: Tanks and Naval Vessels
Russia has suffered severe losses in terms of military equipment as well, having lost two-thirds of its pre-conflict tank inventory and 32 major naval vessels to Ukrainian forces. These losses are a reflection of the ongoing challenges faced by the Russian military in sustaining its operations.
Putin’s Strategy: Avoiding Mass Mobilization
The Russian government, led by President Vladimir Putin, has so far refrained from initiating a large-scale mobilization, opting instead to rely on an increase in pay for volunteer soldiers. U.S. officials noted that while this strategy has helped maintain Russian military strength, it is unclear how long this approach can be sustained without widespread mobilization, which could have significant domestic repercussions in Russia.
Ukraine Strikes Russian Drone Base, Vuhledar and Kursk Conflict
Ukraine’s military continues to strike at Russian logistics and military bases. Recently, Ukrainian forces hit a Russian storage facility in Krasnodar, which housed nearly 400 strike drones. Meanwhile, fighting continues in the Donetsk region, with Russia capturing the town of Vuhledar and pushing toward Povrosk, a crucial railway hub for Ukraine.
The U.S. defense official noted that the Russian strategy in these regions has caused heavy casualties with minimal territorial gains. The fighting around Vuhledar and Povrosk exemplifies the cost of Russia’s offensive tactics in the region.
In the Kursk region, which Ukraine had briefly invaded in August, fierce battles are ongoing. Ukraine had hoped that this incursion would force Russian troops to divert from the front lines, but Russia has since recaptured parts of Kursk. Nevertheless, the U.S. military official expressed confidence that Ukrainian forces could hold the Kursk region for an extended period.
Continued U.S. Support for Ukraine
The U.S. continues to provide significant military aid to Ukraine, with an $8 billion package announced last month to supply Ukraine with defense equipment through January. This funding is part of the larger $61 billion authorized by Congress earlier in the year.
However, President Biden has resisted Zelenskyy’s requests to authorize the use of U.S. long-range missiles (ATACMs) for strikes inside Russia, particularly against Russian weapons depots. While some U.S. lawmakers have expressed support for this request, the Biden administration remains cautious, concerned about the potential for escalation. The U.S. official noted that many of Russia’s key assets, such as glide bombs, have already been moved out of range of ATACMs.
Looking Ahead
As the campaign continues, the situation remains fluid, with both sides enduring heavy losses. The ongoing military support from the U.S. and its allies, combined with the resilience of Ukrainian forces, suggests that the conflict may persist for the foreseeable future. However, with the massive human and material costs for Russia, the ultimate outcome of the campaign remains uncertain.
(INCLUDES INPUTS FROM ONLINE SOURCES)
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