Former President Donald Trump holds a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris among early voters in key swing states, according to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, signaling potential momentum for the Republican candidate as the race for the White House heats up.
The poll, which surveyed voters in crucial battleground states, found that 48% of early voters supported Trump, while 47% backed Harris. The remaining 5% either chose other candidates or had yet to make a decision.
Trump Gaining Ground in Swing States
Trump’s campaign appears to be reaping the benefits of a targeted strategy in the swing states, where the race remains fiercely competitive. Mark Penn, co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, noted that the former president’s approach is paying off: “Trump’s swing state strategy is paying off.”
In a broader view of all voters in these states, Trump holds a slight 2-point lead, garnering 48% of the vote compared to Harris’s 46%, signaling a tight contest in key electoral areas.
Harris Leads Nationally Among Early Voters
While Trump may hold an edge in battleground states, Vice President Harris leads among early voters on a national scale. According to the poll, Harris enjoys a strong 8-point lead nationally with 51% support, compared to Trump’s 43%. Early voting, which has become a significant aspect of the election process, shows that 45% of voters nationwide intend to vote early, while 50% plan to vote on Election Day.
Battleground States Set to Determine the Outcome
As the election approaches, the outcome in a handful of key battleground states will be crucial in determining the next president. The race is particularly tight in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and other crucial states. Both Trump and Harris are ramping up their campaigns, with frequent rallies and stops in these swing areas.
Polling data has shown that the race remains close, with Trump and Harris locked in neck-and-neck battles in several of these states, further intensifying the focus on voter turnout and local campaigns.
Narrow National Race: Harris Leads by Slim Margin
National polling data reflects a similarly tight race. An aggregate of surveys compiled by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ shows that Harris holds a narrow 3-point lead over Trump, with approximately 50% support to Trump’s 47%. In contrast, the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shows a marginal lead for Harris, who is up by just one point over Trump among registered voters overall, further emphasizing the competitive nature of the election.
Polling Methodology
The Harvard CAPS/Harris poll was conducted from October 11-13, surveying 3,145 registered voters, including 2,596 likely voters and 898 voters from battleground states. The margin of error for the overall sample is ±1.8 percentage points.
To ensure the results accurately reflect the population, the data was weighted for various demographic factors, including age, gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, education, employment, and political ideology. Additionally, propensity score weighting was applied to adjust for online survey respondents.
As the race heads into its final stretch, these tight numbers suggest that both campaigns are in for an intense fight in the final weeks before Election Day.
(INCLUDES INPUTS FROM ONLINE SOURCES)
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