Vice President Kamala Harris is set to face Donald Trump in just over two weeks as Americans prepare to vote in the 2024 election.
The competition has intensified, with Harris leading Trump by only one point in several polls. The results of the election remain uncertain.
Recent polls from The Washington Post indicate that in the seven swing states, neither candidate holds a significant lead over the other, with both candidates within a few points of one another.
Harris slightly ahead of Trump
As for the November election, the latest national poll average compiled by FiveThirtyEight shows Harris slightly ahead of Trump by 1.7 points. Although Harris has maintained a marginal lead, this gap has narrowed in recent weeks. A new Washington Post/Schar School survey, which included 5,000 registered voters, indicates that Harris is just one point ahead of Trump, with 49 percent of voters supporting her and 48 percent backing him during the first half of October.
A tight race in swing states
This tight race is mirrored in the swing states, where no candidate is leading likely voters beyond the margin of error. The two candidates are tied in Nevada, while Trump has an edge in Arizona and North Carolina. In contrast, Harris is leading in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The poll also revealed that in these battleground states, 37 percent of registered voters are certain they will support Harris, while the same percentage is inclined to back Trump. Furthermore, 10 percent of swing state voters indicated they would likely support either candidate, suggesting that one in five votes remains undecided.
Decreasing national lead for Harris
Additionally, an Emerson College poll found that nearly 17 percent of voters recently made their decision, with a greater proportion choosing Harris (60 percent) over Trump (36 percent). Despite this, Harris’s national lead has decreased.
According to John Bowden, a correspondent for The Independent, the election has evolved into a true contest where either candidate has a chance to win.
Key issues for swing voters
The economy remains a top priority for voters this election cycle. A poll from The Washington Post highlighted that healthcare and threats to democracy are also significant factors for swing state voters. Although Trump has previously called for changes to Obamacare and attempted to introduce alternative healthcare policies during his presidency, he failed to present a viable plan during the September presidential debate.
Immigration is another crucial issue for voters, particularly Latino voters, who prioritize the candidates’ immigration policies. Interestingly, climate change has emerged as the least important issue for swing state voters this year. Throughout the campaign, climate change has received little attention, with both Harris and Walz largely avoiding the topic, while Trump and Vance have been vocal in their climate denial.
In light of recent severe hurricanes, climate change has resurfaced in discussions; however, Trump inaccurately claimed in a speech on October 1 that the planet has cooled recently.
Young voters back Harris
Recent polls from the New York Times/Siena College show Harris leading by three points, with 49 percent support compared to Trump’s 46 percent. Harris continues to enjoy strong backing from young voters and individuals from diverse backgrounds, while Trump’s core supporters are primarily white, non-college-educated voters.
Moreover, the Trump campaign is reportedly worried that older voters are shifting away from strict Republican allegiance. Recent polling indicates a significant decline in Trump’s support among both Generation X and Baby Boomers. The candidates are nearly tied within these demographics, with Trump holding a slim lead of one to two points, which falls within the margin of error of ±2.4 points. It remains to be seen how this dynamic will evolve as the election approaches, especially considering the Republican Party has consistently won over voters aged 65 and older since 2000.
Republicans for Harris
Additionally, nearly 9 percent of Republicans indicated they might support Harris, departing from traditional party lines. Among the 898 Republicans surveyed in early October, 9 percent stated they would vote for Harris, an increase from 5 percent in September.
The gender gap in voting preferences continues, with women generally supporting Harris and men favoring Trump.
Republicans are expressing growing concern about the Senate races, as revealed in an internal polling memo obtained by Politico. The memo indicates that Republican candidates are lagging behind Democrats in seven out of nine crucial Senate contests, a finding supported by public polling. The key races are taking place in Arizona, Maryland, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
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