As the U.S. presidential elections approach on November 5, the race between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is tightening, with opinion polls indicating that both candidates are polling neck and neck. With a keen focus on the electorally significant “swing states,” both campaigns are ramping up efforts to secure votes in these pivotal areas.
Trump recently held a rally in Pennsylvania, a key East Coast state, while Harris was in Nevada on September 29, rallying her supporters in the West. These states are historically crucial in determining election outcomes, underscoring their importance in the current electoral landscape.
Understanding the Importance of States in U.S. Elections
In the U.S. electoral system, voters cast their ballots for their preferred presidential candidate, but these votes do not directly elect the president. Instead, the election operates through the Electoral College, which consists of “electors” — party leaders, loyalists, and activists. Each state is allocated a number of electors based on its representation in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.
To win the presidency, a candidate must secure a minimum of 270 out of the 538 total electoral votes. The participation of the general population plays a critical role in this process, as voters relay their candidate preferences to their state’s electors. The results of this popular vote are announced in November, enabling the winning party to select the corresponding electors. In December, these electors convene to formally cast their votes for their party’s candidate, officially declaring the election results.
What Are Swing States?
In U.S. political terminology, states are often categorized as “red” (favoring Republicans) or “blue” (favoring Democrats) based on their historical voting patterns. However, some states are deemed “swing states” because they do not consistently align with either party. In their book Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter, authors Stacey Hunter Hecht and David Schulz discuss various factors that contribute to this phenomenon.
One major factor is strong party identification within a state, often stemming from one party’s superior organization. This can lead to the opposing party investing fewer resources, reinforcing the established party’s dominance. For instance, Texas has consistently voted Republican since Ronald Reagan’s presidency in 1980, resulting in a weakened Democratic Party presence in the state.
Another factor influencing party alignment is the ideological orientation of voters within a state. Political history and demographics play a significant role in shaping these ideologies. For example, women and college-educated voters tend to lean Democratic, which can influence overall voting patterns.
The Strategic Focus on Swing States
Swing states attract the attention of political candidates and their parties because of their unpredictable voting behavior. As Hecht and Schulz highlight, “Candidates travel, parties spend money, and [swing states are] where the balance of power and the winner of the presidential election is really determined.” According to The New York Times, Pennsylvania is viewed as the most crucial swing state in the current election cycle, with 19 electoral votes. It is considered vital for both candidates’ paths to victory.
In anticipation of the election, groups supporting Trump and Harris are expected to spend over $138 million on television and radio ads in Pennsylvania between late September and Election Day. Both candidates have prioritized their time and resources in this battleground state.
Are Swing States Permanent?
Swing states can evolve over time due to various factors, including local political issues, demographics, and party campaign strategies. This dynamic nature allows states to shift their allegiance from one party to another. Georgia serves as a prime example of this shift; it had consistently voted Republican from 1992 until 2016 but supported Joe Biden in the 2020 election.
Polling analysis from FiveThirtyEight attributes this change to several factors, including a rise in anti-Trump sentiments, greater acceptance of Biden among Democratic voters, and an increasing proportion of non-white populations in the state. Generally, Asian, Black, and Hispanic voters tend to favor Democrats.
Moreover, local leaders like Stacey Abrams have played a significant role in mobilizing voters in Georgia. Her decade-long focus on a turnout-based strategy has successfully engaged previously disengaged demographics, demonstrating how targeted efforts can influence electoral outcomes.
