As the 2024 national general election draws near, the approximately 2.5 million Muslim voters in the U.S. stand ready to significantly influence the political landscape. Their strong presence in key swing states positions them as vital players in determining the outcomes of the presidential race as well as congressional and local elections. This report explores the political inclinations and voting intentions of Muslim voters in this crucial election year.
With just two weeks until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign is urgently working to regain the support of Arab and Muslim voters. They have launched targeted Facebook ads, set up WhatsApp channels, and distributed fact sheets outlining Harris’s strongest statements regarding the conflict in Gaza. In private meetings across the country—particularly in battleground states like Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania—campaign workers are reaching out to voters who express reluctance to participate, considering third-party options, or even contemplating a vote for former President Donald Trump due to the Biden administration’s Middle Eastern policies.
The campaign’s core message is straightforward: Harris has shown empathy for Palestinians and urged Israel to comply with international law, while Trump seeks to reinstate a travel ban targeting individuals from Muslim-majority countries and has used derogatory language regarding Palestinians.
Despite the challenges in obtaining reliable polling data on this demographic, interviews indicate that Harris is struggling to connect with Arab and Muslim voters, raising alarm bells for her campaign as Election Day approaches.
Michigan is particularly critical, home to over 300,000 residents of Middle Eastern or North African descent. In 2020, Biden won the state by a margin of nearly 155,000 votes. However, voters like Hussein Dabajeh, a Lebanese American from Dearborn, are reconsidering their support. A consistent Democratic voter, Dabajeh feels he cannot back the ticket this year, stating, “Would you rather your family be banned from entering this country, or would you rather your family be killed by an Israeli airstrike?” He plans to show up at the polls advocating against Harris, opting to write in “No Genocide” instead of voting for either major candidate.
Since her nomination, Harris has been focused on rebuilding the coalition that helped propel Biden to victory in 2020. However, the Biden administration’s support for Israel amid escalating violence in Gaza and Lebanon has fractured traditional Democratic support among Arab Americans.
Rising Dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris Administration
Dissatisfaction is growing among Muslim Americans regarding the Biden-Harris administration’s foreign policy, particularly in the context of the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict. Advocacy groups, including the burgeoning “Abandon Harris” movement, are urging voters to reject her due to what they perceive as a failure to adequately address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. This movement, which began in swing states like Michigan and Minnesota, is now expanding into states such as Georgia, highlighting the increasing importance of the Muslim vote.
Some organizations, like the Pakistani American Public Affairs Committee (PAKPAC), have gone further by endorsing Trump for the 2024 election, citing his willingness to engage in dialogue with Pakistan during his first term and the Biden administration’s perceived neglect of U.S.-Pakistan relations.
The Power of Swing States
The numbers are telling. States like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota were decisive in the 2016 election, where Trump won by razor-thin margins. In 2020, these states swung back to Biden, but shifting voter sentiments, particularly regarding international affairs, leave many Muslim voters feeling overlooked. This discontent could drive Muslim Americans toward third-party candidates or even Trump.
The concentration of Muslim populations in urban areas of these battleground states amplifies their influence. Cities such as Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia house large Muslim communities, meaning even minor shifts in voting preferences could swing electoral outcomes, creating significant challenges for the Democratic Party.
The Unexpected Appeal of Trump
Despite Trump’s controversial “Muslim ban” during his presidency, his appeal to certain segments of the Muslim community is growing. Many Muslim voters are increasingly focused on U.S. foreign policy, especially relating to their countries of origin. Trump’s willingness to engage with leaders from Pakistan, coupled with his rhetoric around peace deals in the Middle East, is resonating with some voters.
Moreover, Trump’s tough stance on China and efforts to strengthen economic ties with countries like Pakistan have attracted attention from those prioritizing international relations. In contrast, the Biden administration’s failure to advocate for the release of political prisoners in Pakistan has raised doubts about their commitment to democracy and human rights.
A Shift in Political Engagement
Political commentators highlight that the growing influence of the Muslim voting bloc in swing states is reshaping American electoral politics. As Ryan Girdusky notes, U.S. immigration policy has “imported” a powerful voter base capable of swaying elections. Muslim Americans are no longer passive participants; they are organized, vocal, and influential—a reflection of the role that ethnic and religious vote banks play in countries like India.
With only 15 days until the elections, both parties must recognize the pivotal role Muslim Americans could play. In closely contested states, a shift in Muslim voter sentiment could determine the outcome. The Biden-Harris campaign must confront these issues directly to secure victories in key battlegrounds, while Trump’s outreach and focus on U.S.-Pakistan relations may provide him an unexpected advantage with this crucial voting bloc.
