Vice President Harris and former President Trump are engaged in an extremely tight contest as the campaign enters its final full week, at least according to the opinion polls.
Currently, Harris maintains a slim lead in national polls, with her advantage shrinking to less than one point in the average tracked by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ). Historically, Democratic candidates have required a more substantial national lead to succeed in the Electoral College.
Battleground states
In the 2020 election, President Biden won the popular vote by over four points but secured a narrow victory in the Electoral College. Similarly, in 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by more than two points but lost the election.
The race is even tighter in seven battleground states. According to the Hill/DDHQ averages, Michigan shows a complete tie, while Trump leads in the other six swing states as of Friday evening. However, in none of these states does Trump’s advantage exceed two points, and in three, it falls below one point.
A tied race between Harris and Trump
Given the extreme closeness of the election, both campaigns may feel encouraged or anxious based on individual polls. A national poll from The New York Times and Siena College released on Friday morning showed the race tied, which is unfavorable for Harris, especially since she had a three-point lead in a similar poll from the same organizations earlier this month. Conversely, an ABC News/Ipsos poll published the same day indicated that nearly half of registered voters view Trump as a fascist.
In the battleground states, Trump appears to have stronger support in Arizona and North Carolina compared to the other competitive areas. The Hill/DDHQ averages indicate that he has a larger lead in these states than elsewhere. Additional analyses from FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin also show Trump leading in North Carolina and Arizona by a more significant margin than in other battlegrounds.
Trump encourages supporters to vote early year
In the 2020 election, Arizona had a notably high rate of early voting, with nearly 80 percent of voters casting their ballots early. Recent data from the University of Florida Election Lab indicates that registered Republicans in Arizona are voting at a slightly higher rate than they did four years ago. So far, 42.1 percent of ballots cast have been from registered Republicans, while 35.4 percent are from Democrats, contrasting with the roughly equal distribution between both parties in 2020.
It’s essential to recognize that the increase in Republican ballots could be attributed to Trump encouraging his supporters to vote early this year, despite his criticism of this method in the previous election. Furthermore, voters in Arizona who do not affiliate with either major party, making up more than one-fifth of early ballots, may play a crucial role in the election’s outcome.
Trump leading in North Carolina
In North Carolina, Trump is currently leading by 1.5 percentage points, according to The Hill/DDHQ averages. This state is unique among the seven battlegrounds this year, as Trump won it in 2020. Historically, Democrats have only won North Carolina twice in presidential elections over the last fifty years.
Democrats have expressed concerns in recent weeks about pollsters perceived to be favorable to Republicans skewing the averages. However, two reputable polls from Emerson College and Marist College conducted within the last week both show Trump leading in North Carolina, albeit by only two points.
Who is winning Georgia, Michigan?
The unpredictability of the election is particularly pronounced in Georgia and Michigan, where specific factors suggest a potential deviation from their traditional electoral patterns. Four years ago, Biden became the first Democrat to win Georgia since Clinton in 1992, doing so by a narrow margin. Currently, Trump is ahead by 1.3 points in the The Hill/DDHQ average. Trump supporters believe that retaining North Carolina, reverting Georgia to its GOP-leaning tendencies, and winning Pennsylvania are their most viable paths to victory. However, Georgia’s Black population, which is approximately 33 percent, could significantly impact Harris’s chances if those voters turn out to support her candidacy as the first female Black president. Harris and former President Obama campaigned together at a large rally in Atlanta on Thursday to boost Black voter turnout. Despite Trump’s lead in the polls, a recent Marist College survey indicated that Harris holds a slight one-point advantage among registered voters in Georgia.
In contrast, Michigan presents a different scenario. Since the 1980s, only Trump in 2016 has won the state for the Republican Party. At one point, Harris enjoyed a lead of almost two points, but this advantage has diminished, influenced not only by national trends but also by concerns regarding the White House’s policies on Israel, Gaza, and the Middle East, particularly in a state with a significant Arab-American population. Additionally, some labor unions have withheld endorsements that Harris’s supporters had hoped for.
Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin: Trump or Harris?
Regarding Harris’s prospects in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, winning these three states alone would not suffice for her victory. However, if she secures them, she would only need one more win from the remaining battlegrounds. Nevada has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004. Harris had previously held a two-point lead in mid-September, but that advantage has diminished, and early voting data indicates a higher number of ballots cast by registered Republicans. Nonetheless, she hopes to maintain support in the state, partly through backing from the influential Culinary Workers Union.
Wisconsin remains uncertain. It has a strong labor tradition and is part of the “Blue Wall” along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Democrats have historically performed well, with the exception of 2016. However, Wisconsin’s polls in both 2016 and 2020 significantly underestimated Trump’s support. Currently, Trump leads by a narrow margin of four-tenths of a point in The Hill/DDHQ average, while two other polling averages from FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin show Harris with a similarly slight lead.
Pennsylvania, with its 19 Electoral College votes, is the most significant prize among the battlegrounds. Trump leads in all three polling averages—The Hill/DDHQ, FiveThirtyEight, and Silver Bulletin—but by less than one-third of a point. Harris will be counting on strong turnout in major cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, as well as hoping that her key issue, abortion rights, resonates with voters in the critical counties surrounding Philadelphia. A Trump victory in this state would pose serious challenges for the vice president.
