As tensions between Israel and Iran-backed militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas persist, a transformation is reshaping the Middle East. A shift in alliances sees Arab countries increasingly distancing themselves from Tehran’s reach, favoring stability and economic growth over previous ideological divides. Simultaneously, the United States has intensified its focus on the Indian Ocean to secure regional interests and counterbalance China’s expanding presence. Together, these developments are charting a course for a different Middle East and broader strategic arena.
Arab-Israeli Realignment: Pragmatism Over Past Conflicts
Historically, Israel was considered a central adversary by much of the Arab world. However, with Iran’s growing influence in the region—through its support of groups in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza—the security priorities of Arab nations have changed. Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt now view Iran as a more pressing concern, understanding that direct confrontation with Israel could destabilize their economies and security and that’s what the Israel used as a Hidden Weapon
The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, marked a significant shift, formalizing relationships between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. These agreements symbolize a shift from ideological divisions toward economic and technological partnerships, underpinned by mutual security concerns. The latest clashes involving Iranian-backed groups underscore why these Arab nations are cautious about openly aligning with Tehran against Israel, opting instead for a diplomatic, stability-focused stance.
Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Caution
Saudi Arabia, a leader in the Arab world, has deliberately avoided aligning with Iran-backed movements. Though formal ties with Israel remain unofficial, Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic steps toward Israel hinge on shared concerns about Iran’s influence. The Kingdom’s Vision 2030 goals center on economic diversification and modernization, necessitating a stable environment. Aligning with Iran in anti-Israel conflicts would disrupt these objectives, creating economic and security vulnerabilities.
Saudi Arabia’s engagement in Yemen reflects this strategic caution. Supporting Yemen’s government against Iran-backed Houthi forces, the Kingdom emphasizes national interests over ideological support. This pragmatic approach secures internal stability and protects Saudi Arabia’s modernization goals from external threats.
UAE’s Modernization-Driven Diplomacy
The UAE has established itself as a center for trade, technology, and tourism, leveraging its foreign policy for economic gain. Normalization with Israel under the Abraham Accords has created valuable partnerships in critical sectors, from finance to technology. The UAE’s focus on economic progress and international collaboration aligns with its vision for a peaceful, resilient, and prosperous environment, and avoiding Iran-backed, anti-Israel conflicts supports these aims.
This approach distances the UAE from regional rivalries, positioning it as a model of progressive policy, securing both economic interests and regional stability. By focusing on modernization, the UAE reinforces its appeal to investors and strengthens its position as a regional powerhouse.
Bahrain’s Security Considerations
With a significant Shia population and geographic proximity to Iran, Bahrain’s leaders recognize the potential for internal threats if Iran’s influence were to grow unchecked. The Kingdom’s ties with Saudi Arabia and its involvement in the Abraham Accords reflect a strategic alignment focused on securing sovereignty and stabilizing internal unity. Collaborating with Israel enhances Bahrain’s security position, allowing it to pursue development goals while staying outside Iran’s regional agenda.
Egypt and Jordan’s Peace-Centric Approach
While Egypt and Jordan have not joined the Abraham Accords, both nations maintain longstanding peace treaties with Israel. Egypt, which borders Gaza, emphasizes diplomacy to prevent violence from spilling into its territories, often acting as a mediator between Israel and Palestinian factions. Jordan similarly prioritizes diplomatic channels, leveraging strong partnerships with Western allies to reinforce its peace-oriented approach.
By avoiding alignment with Iran-backed entities, Egypt and Jordan continue to underscore a pragmatic policy that promotes peace and security over ideological conflicts. This stance strengthens their roles as stabilizing influences in the region, safeguarding internal security and fostering regional cooperation.
U.S. Strategic Focus on the Indian Ocean
As the Middle East experiences these realignments, the United States has recalibrated its strategic priorities, amplifying its focus on the Indian Ocean. The region’s critical role in global trade and energy transport aligns with the U.S.’s Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China’s influence. As China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) expands into South Asia, the U.S. recognizes the need to secure its presence in the Indian Ocean to protect trade routes and secure energy flows from the Middle East.
The U.S. drive in the Indian Ocean complements its partnerships with Arab nations who are also concerned about Iran’s regional ambitions. By bolstering its influence there, the U.S. supports its allies and creates a counterweight to both Iranian and Chinese influence, aligning U.S. interests with those of its partners in the Middle East.
Arab Non-Alignment with Iran: A U.S. Strategic Opportunity
For the U.S., Arab nations’ non-alignment with Iran’s anti-Israel efforts presents a valuable strategic advantage. Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain act as stabilizing forces aligned with American goals, facilitating a balanced power structure across the Middle East. By prioritizing neutrality or stability over conflict, these Arab allies strengthen the U.S.’s ability to protect regional interests.
The U.S. partnerships in the Middle East, reinforced through arms sales, defense agreements, and intelligence-sharing, enable America to project power from the Arabian Peninsula to the Indian Ocean. This network of alliances extends U.S. influence, securing its interests across critical areas in the broader Indo-Pacific strategy.
Implications for Regional and Global Stability
The combination of Arab nations distancing themselves from Iran-backed conflicts and the U.S. presence in the Indian Ocean signals multiple impacts for regional stability and global power dynamics:
- Enhanced U.S. Naval Influence: By increasing its naval presence, the U.S. secures key maritime routes, ensuring safe passage for its energy supplies and those of its allies. This expanded presence acts as a deterrent to both Iranian and Chinese aggression, supporting stability across the region.
- Counter to China’s Expansion: The U.S. focus on the Indian Ocean counterbalances China’s influence in South Asia, the Middle East, and East Africa. This strategy counters China’s BRI projects and fortifies alliances with countries facing similar security concerns.
- Strengthened U.S.-Arab Alliances: The practical approach taken by Arab countries complements U.S. interests, solidifying the region’s alignment with American objectives. This collaboration fortifies the U.S. footprint, enhancing its reach from the Middle East to the Indian Ocean and contributing to broader Indo-Pacific goals.
- Shift from Ideological Conflicts: The preference for economic advancement and stability over ideological confrontations by Arab countries attracts investment, encouraging regional growth. This focus on modernization over militaristic conflict enhances regional resilience and progress.
- Regional Stability as a Collective Priority: The shared goal of maintaining peace allows both the U.S. and its Arab allies to pursue long-term security and economic objectives. This joint emphasis on stability as a foundation for growth promotes a balanced, forward-looking approach to regional governance.
How Iran Became a Regional Power Through Hybrid Warfare
Over the past 40 years, Iran has built a formidable military strategy based on hybrid warfare. Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution and subsequent economic isolation, Iran faced economic and strategic limitations. In response, it developed an adaptable approach, combining conventional forces with a range of tactical weapons, cyber warfare, drones, and asymmetric methods. This hybrid warfare model enables Iran to project influence across the region, allowing it to counter threats from adversaries.
Iran’s investment in missiles, naval assets, and cyber tools has redefined the Middle East’s power structure, complicating efforts by the U.S., Israel, and Sunni Arab states to counter its influence. By extending its reach through proxy groups and unconventional tactics, Iran has shifted regional dynamics, solidifying its role as a key Middle Eastern power.
Concluding: The Israel-Iran conflict, along with several Arab nations’ neutral stance and the U.S.’s shift toward the Indian Ocean, reveals a complex geopolitical landscape marked by shifting alliances. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt are setting aside ideological confrontations to focus on stability and economic growth. For the U.S., this pragmatic realignment among its allies provides a strategic advantage, reinforcing its influence in a region where it faces competition with China.
As the U.S. expands its presence in the Indian Ocean, its Arab allies serve as essential partners in securing a stable regional power structure. This evolving dynamic points to a future where cooperation and stability in the Middle East and beyond redefine global alliances, fostering a more interconnected and balanced world and an opportunity to decrease the power of Iran turning into a superpower in Middle East.
Views expressed in this article are of the author Dr. Prof ( Dr) Nishakant Ojha who is an eminent Expert-Counter Terrorism (West Asia & Middle East) and an expert on Foreign Diplomatic Issues.
