The dynamics of the gender gap in voting have evolved over decades, and as the 2024 presidential election approaches, this gap may play a crucial role in deciding the outcome between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Recent polling suggests that the differences in how men and women vote could be a decisive factor in this tightly contested race.
The latest Ipsos poll indicates a significant 16-point gender gap among likely voters. Harris holds an 11-point lead among women, garnering 53% compared to Trump’s 42%, while Trump has a 5-point advantage among men, with 50% to Harris’s 45%. This disparity reflects historical trends, as the gender gap has averaged 19 points in presidential exit polls since 1996.
However, analysts believe the gender gap in 2024 could be more pronounced. Whit Ayres, a seasoned Republican pollster, highlighted the unique context of this election, stating, “With a woman versus a man at the top of the ticket and with the prominence of the abortion issue in the wake of the Dobbs decision, we could have a historically large gender gap approaching a gender chasm this year.” For Harris, the key to success lies in winning a greater share of women while minimizing losses among men, whereas Trump must do the opposite.
Campaign Strategies: Turning The Gap Into Gains
Both campaigns are actively working to leverage the gender gap to their advantage. Harris has centered her campaign on reproductive rights, a particularly resonant issue following the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Recent rallies, including a star-studded event in Texas with Beyoncé, have underscored this focus. Additionally, high-profile endorsements from figures like Michelle Obama aim to emphasize the significance of women’s health issues.
Celinda Lake, a prominent Democratic pollster, noted the critical role of the abortion issue, especially among younger women. “They are registered in record numbers, but we have to make sure they all turn out to vote,” she warned, emphasizing Harris’s overwhelming 40-point lead among women aged 19 to 29.
Harris has also targeted outreach to men, particularly within the Black community, to counteract previous polling trends that showed declining support. The final ABC News/Ipsos poll revealed that 76% of Black men support Harris, a figure slightly lower than Biden’s 79% in 2020, while she boasts 87% support among Black women.
On the other side, Trump is concentrating on mobilizing male voters, particularly younger and apathetic men. By surrounding himself with prominent figures like Elon Musk and Hulk Hogan, Trump has cultivated a strongman persona that appeals to this demographic. He leads with white men by 13 points and among non-college-educated white men and women by approximately 30 points, despite a narrower margin among white women, where he leads Harris by only 4 points.
Targeting Hispanic Voters
Trump’s campaign has also ramped up efforts to appeal to Hispanic voters, a group that shows its own gender divide. Current polling indicates that Harris leads among Hispanic likely voters with 55%, while Trump trails at 41%. This outreach reflects a broader strategy aimed at winning over demographics that may have traditionally leaned Democratic.
Ayres noted, “I think Trump is trying to drive up his vote among men. I haven’t seen a whole lot of outreach to women.” This lack of focused messaging could prove detrimental, especially given Harris’s strategic positioning on women’s rights.
The Importance of Turnout
As Election Day approaches, early voting trends reveal that women are turning out at higher rates than men, with 54% of early votes cast by women compared to 43.6% by men. This trend mirrors previous elections, including 2020, when women comprised 53% of the electorate.
Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist, pointed out that women are voting early at significant margins across battleground states, with the exception of Nevada. Although it remains unclear which candidate these early voters favor, the data suggests optimism for Democrats.
Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, emphasized, “There’s just simply more women in the electorate, and they turn out to vote more. If you add in their preference for Harris over Trump, this should be very good news for Harris.”
