As Election Day approaches, a seasoned Nevada politics expert has made a bold prediction: Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to edge out former President Donald Trump in the Silver State, despite the tight race. Jon Ralston, the CEO and editor of The Nevada Independent, shared his insights on Monday, suggesting that Harris will win the state by a slim margin of 48.5% to Trump’s 48.2%.
The Crucial Role of Non-Major-Party Voters
Ralston’s analysis centers on the state’s growing bloc of non-major-party voters, which has become a key factor in determining election outcomes in Nevada. These voters, who now make up approximately 30% of the electorate, are poised to play a decisive role in the 2024 race. According to Ralston, the direction in which these voters lean will likely determine whether Harris or Trump emerges victorious.
“If the non-major-party voters swing towards Harris, she will win Nevada,” Ralston wrote. He explained that many of these nonpartisan voters are, in fact, aligned with the Democratic Party but were registered as independents or nonpartisans—a strategy by Democratic-aligned groups to capture this growing group of voters. With this “machine” in place to mobilize these voters, Ralston believes Harris has the edge.
The Nonpartisan Voter Shift
The trend of registering voters as nonpartisan has been particularly significant in Nevada, where the state has seen a shift in its political landscape in recent years. As Republicans have made gains in voter registration, the state’s automatic voter registration law, which registers people as nonpartisans unless they actively choose a party, had raised concerns among Democrats. However, Ralston argues that this policy may not be as damaging as some think. He suggests that many of these nonpartisan voters, though officially unaffiliated, are actually “closet Democrats” who were intentionally registered by Democratic groups to keep them out of the GOP’s reach.
Ralston is confident that the Democrats’ extensive network and ground game will effectively turn out these voters, ensuring they cast their ballots in favor of Harris when it matters most. The combination of these nonpartisan voters and Harris’s overall base of support could be enough to carry Nevada in her favor, even if polling suggests a close race.
Polling in Nevada: A Tight Contest
Polling in Nevada has shown a tight race, with Trump currently leading Harris by 1.7 points in the The Hill/Decision Desk HQ averages. Trump holds 49.2% of support, while Harris is at 47.5%. This narrow gap reflects the state’s status as a critical swing state, where election outcomes often fall within the margin of error.
Ralston’s prediction is particularly significant given the state’s importance in the 2024 election. Nevada has been a crucial battleground in recent cycles, and both Harris and Trump know that securing the state’s 6 electoral votes could be the difference between victory and defeat.
Nevada’s Swing State Nature
Nevada has long been considered a swing state, and local political figures are well aware of its unpredictability. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) echoed this sentiment in a recent interview, emphasizing the state’s reputation for tight races. “It’s a swing state,” she said. “They’re always close. It’s always within the margin, and that’s why it is important you get out and talk to voters, and you don’t take anyone for granted.”
Cortez Masto’s remarks underscore the intense campaigning that has been happening in Nevada over the final stretch of the race. Both parties are leaving no stone unturned, knowing how pivotal the state’s voters will be in determining the outcome of the election.
Looking Ahead to Election Day
As Election Day nears, Nevada remains one of the most watched states in the nation. With both Harris and Trump locked in a tight battle, every vote will count, and the final results are expected to be very close.
Ralston’s prediction of a narrow win for Harris hinges on the key factor of non-major-party voters and the Democrats’ ability to mobilize them. If his analysis proves accurate, Harris could secure a crucial victory in Nevada, potentially tipping the scale in her favor as the path to the White House comes down to just a few key battlegrounds.
With both parties focusing their resources and energy on Nevada, the race will come down to voter turnout, and in particular, how the nonpartisan vote breaks in the final hours before Election Day. As one of the most closely watched states, Nevada’s outcome will be a vital piece of the puzzle in the 2024 presidential election.
