With President-elect Donald Trump poised to assume office once again, Canadian authorities and migrant support groups are gearing up for a potential wave of asylum-seekers looking to cross into Canada. This preparation comes at a time when Canada is already dealing with a historic rise in refugee claims, prompting concerns about border security and humanitarian needs.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) has been preparing for months in anticipation of policy changes in the U.S. that could drive irregular migration. “We knew a few months ago that we had to start prepping a contingency plan,” stated RCMP Sergeant Charles Poirier.
“Worst-case scenario would be people crossing in large numbers everywhere on the territory.” If the number of daily crossings were to spike, he added, the RCMP would face challenges in covering extensive areas along the border to intercept and process asylum-seekers.
Stricter U.S.-Canada Border Policies Limit Options
Under Trump’s first term in 2017, thousands of asylum-seekers crossed into Canada through unofficial entry points like Roxham Road, a popular route near the Quebec-New York border. However, a recently expanded bilateral agreement now requires asylum-seekers to enter through formal crossings only, and any attempt to cross elsewhere along the 4,000-mile border leads to immediate return unless specific exemptions are met.
As a result, many migrants are now forced to evade detection and navigate remote areas—a strategy that poses significant risks, particularly as winter approaches.
“The lack of safe, legal pathways leads people to attempt dangerous routes,” warned Abdulla Daoud, director of The Refugee Centre in Montreal. Migrants are already taking these risks, and numbers are expected to grow as stricter deportation policies in the U.S. prompt more to seek refuge in Canada.
Canada’s immigration system is already facing unprecedented demand. Data from the Immigration and Refugee Board indicates that nearly 20,000 people filed refugee claims in July, the highest monthly count on record. Although claims fell slightly to 16,400 by September, the numbers remain historically high, with a backlog exceeding 250,000 cases.
“We’re already struggling with this influx,” said Loly Rico, founder of Toronto’s FCJ Refugee Centre, which assists dozens of new asylum-seekers weekly. Rico expressed concern about a potential surge in winter, noting the 2022 tragedy in which a family of four froze to death while attempting to cross near Emerson, Manitoba. “Winter crossings are incredibly dangerous,” Rico emphasized.
Pressure On Canada’s Infrastructure
Heightened border enforcement is also creating opportunities for smugglers, who have shifted from transporting migrants into the U.S. to facilitating costly, overland journeys to Canada. Rico noted that individuals are now paying extra for help entering Canada by land or air. Daoud pointed out the urgent need for Canada to enhance its asylum infrastructure to accommodate growing demand.
“Without government policy shifts, we won’t be adequately prepared, and the issue will become politicized again,” Daoud said, calling for better investments in processing and support systems for refugee claimants.
Canada’s Immigration Minister Marc Miller has acknowledged the potential challenges and assured that the government has contingency plans for a possible influx of asylum-seekers. While details have not been disclosed, Miller’s office affirmed that “any approach taken will prioritize the best interests of Canada and all residents.”
As tensions rise and migration concerns loom on both sides of the border, Canadian authorities remain on high alert. “We’ve been monitoring the situation closely, especially around election season,” said Poirier, who confirmed that additional resources could be deployed to reinforce border patrol efforts in the coming weeks.
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