Iran is facing severe domestic unrest while already under intensified pressure from Israel. There are reports that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is critically ill and that there is a possibility of an immediate leadership succession. Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the ailing leader, is apparently set to take control of the Shia Islamic State of the Country before the possible death of his father. This may have historic consequences for the politics of Iran and its influence within the West Asian region.
Reports Of Mojtaba’s Succession
Iran International, a pro-exiled Iranian dissident Persian-language media outlet, reported on Wednesday that Mojtaba Khamenei has been chosen as the next supreme leader in secret. YNet News also included a reference to this report as it revealed the secretive process involved in the selection.
This has come after an earlier report by The New York Times of a shadowy power struggle within Iran to determine who will succeed Ali Khamenei. At 85, Khamenei’s health has been a subject of concern for years. A rare public appearance was staged by Khamenei October 4, when he gave a speech beside a rifle as he led prayers for Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah, said by some to have been killed in an Israeli attack.
Iran International reports that on September 26, Khamenei called a secret meeting of all 60 members of Iran’s Assembly of Experts. Their sole agenda item: choosing his successor, and doing so sooner rather than later.
The assembly, which initially rejected the process and Mojtaba as a candidate for leadership, eventually voted for him with unanimous consent. The accounts suggest that the direct threats from the leader and his agents contributed to pushing down any opposition and kept the result of the meeting above board for over a month without it being known.
Challenges In Iran’s Succession Leadership
Unlike the relatively soft coup that Ayatollah Khamenei experienced in 1989 when Ayatollah Khomeini died, the current replacement is inherently uncertain. A series of factors helped to cement the unopposed ascension of Khamenei during his time. Chief among these was Rafsanjani, a political leader who successfully brought many factions under his umbrella, securing Khamenei’s automatic succession.
However, the route to power for Mojtaba is fraught with problems. The political landscape in Iran has polarized; no leader has yet gained stature to settle factional disputes, which Rafsanjani did, and many members in Khamenei’s inner circle are unpopular with the Iranian public, complicating the transition further.
Recent developments also make Mojtaba’s probable succession more complicated. One of the viable successors, Ebrahim Raisi, died in a helicopter crash in Azerbaijan this year. Another influential figure who could serve as a kingmaker, Qasem Soleimani, was assassinated in 2020, which further weakened the leadership structure.
Social unrest also looms large over this process. The death of Mahsa Amini in custody last year ignited widespread protests, reflecting deep-seated dissatisfaction with the regime. These movements underscore the challenges any new leader would face in consolidating power.
Who Is Mojtaba Khamenei?
Born in 1969 in Mashhad, northeastern Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei has kept a relatively low profile given the influence he holds over Iran’s power dynamics. Mojtaba Khamenei studied theology with his father and other scholars at Qom seminary, where he became a cleric and theology instructor.
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