Indian farmers recorded an unprecedented rice harvest of 120 million metric tons during the summer season, contributing approximately 85% to the nation’s total rice production. This impressive production has been attributed to ample monsoon rains, which also encouraged an expansion of the area under cultivation.
India’s rice inventories soared to an unprecedented level at the beginning of December, exceeding five times the government’s target and setting the stage for increased exports from the world’s largest rice exporter.
According to data from the Food Corporation of India (FCI), the nation’s state granaries held a staggering 44.1 million metric tons of rice reserves, including unmilled paddy this year. This figure far surpasses the government’s target of 7.6 million tons. Similarly, wheat stocks stood at 22.3 million tons, significantly above the target of 13.8 million tons.
This surplus in rice stocks positions India to potentially enhance its overseas shipments without compromising domestic supplies. Notably, the government had imposed export restrictions on all grades of rice last year due to erratic monsoon rains that affected production. However, expectations of a bumper harvest have prompted the removal of most export curbs, except for broken rice.
Record Rice Harvest from Summer Season
Indian farmers achieved a record rice harvest of 120 million metric tons during the summer season, which accounts for approximately 85% of the nation’s total rice output. This impressive production has been attributed to ample monsoon rains, which also encouraged an expansion of the area under cultivation. As a result, sowing of all kharif crops surpassed their five-year average by mid-September, with most crops now reaching or entering the final stages of harvest.
The FCI is projected to procure 48.5 million metric tons of summer-harvested rice during the marketing year that commenced on October 1, up from 46.3 million tons in the previous year. The abundance of grain is expected to lead to further increases in state reserves, raising storage concerns for the world’s second-largest rice producer.
Unlike rice, India does not permit wheat exports. Domestic wheat prices have surged to record levels due to high demand, limited availability, and delays in the release of stocks from government warehouses to ease market shortages.
Broader Agricultural Policy Discussions
Amid these developments, the discourse surrounding agricultural policies has intensified. Farmer protests in 2020 reignited demands for the legalization of minimum support prices (MSP), which remains a central issue. Meanwhile, the sugar sector is also showing signs of recovery, with revised production estimates pointing to potential export revival.
As the new crop cycle progresses, India’s grain surplus is expected to shape its agricultural policies and trade dynamics in the coming months.
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