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As the Delhi Assembly elections approach, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is once again seen as the frontrunner. However, with just days left before the February 5 polls, shifting dynamics indicate a more competitive race than anticipated.
While AAP aims for a third consecutive term, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has made significant efforts to challenge its dominance. Several key factors will determine the final outcome, shaping the electoral battle between the two main contenders.
Key Factors Influencing the Election
Several voter demographics and issues are expected to play a decisive role in the Delhi elections. These include:
- Dalit Voters (20% of the Electorate) – Traditionally a stronghold for AAP, but potential shifts could impact results.
- Muslim Voters (13% of the Electorate) – Have historically backed AAP but face efforts to be swayed by other parties.
- Middle-Class Voters (40% of the Electorate) – Leaning towards the BJP due to dissatisfaction with infrastructure and governance.
- Freebies and Welfare Promises – Both parties are making strong commitments, making it a key battleground issue.
- Leadership and Public Trust – Arvind Kejriwal remains AAP’s face, while BJP banks on Narendra Modi’s appeal.
A deeper analysis of these factors provides insight into how the election may unfold.
Dalit Voters: AAP’s Stronghold Faces New Challenges
For years, AAP has enjoyed solid support from Dalit voters residing in Delhi’s slums and unauthorized colonies. Policies such as free electricity, water, and education have cemented their loyalty. However, this time, BJP is making a concerted effort to break AAP’s hold on this vote bank.
The BJP has actively campaigned in these areas, promising concrete houses for slum dwellers and committing to continuing existing welfare schemes. Additionally, BJP leaders highlight AAP’s unfulfilled promises regarding improving living conditions in slum clusters.
While AAP remains confident that its core Dalit support base is intact, BJP believes it has made inroads, which could lead to a split in votes. If a significant portion shifts towards the BJP, it could impact AAP’s overall seat count.
Muslim Voters: AAP Maintains an Edge
Muslims form around 13% of Delhi’s electorate and play a decisive role in at least nine assembly seats. In previous elections, they have overwhelmingly supported AAP, viewing it as the strongest contender against the BJP.
The BJP had hoped that Congress’ presence in the election would divide the Muslim vote. However, Congress has failed to mount an aggressive campaign, and regional parties like the Samajwadi Party (SP) have extended support to AAP. This has reduced the likelihood of a significant vote split.
BJP’s chances in these key constituencies would have improved if a three-way division occurred between AAP, Congress, and AIMIM. However, current trends suggest that Muslim voters are likely to stay loyal to AAP, giving it a clear advantage in this segment.
Middle-Class Voters: A Swing Towards BJP?
A major factor in these elections is the middle-class vote, which makes up around 40% of Delhi’s electorate. Unlike previous elections, where it was divided between AAP and BJP, the middle class appears to be consolidating behind the BJP.
Several grievances fuel this shift:
- Poor infrastructure and worsening air pollution.
- Roads in poor condition and unclean public spaces.
- Complaints regarding water quality and sanitation.
- A perception that AAP has prioritized slum dwellers over middle-class taxpayers.
Additionally, the Union Budget’s announcement of tax relief, including exemptions for those earning up to ₹12.75 lakh, has further strengthened BJP’s appeal among salaried professionals. The BJP is also aggressively campaigning in middle-class areas, engaging with Resident Welfare Associations (RWAs) and business communities.
This growing discontent with AAP in middle-class areas could lead to tight contests in constituencies like New Delhi (contested by Arvind Kejriwal) and Kalkaji (contested by Atishi).
Freebies: A Crucial Battleground
Welfare schemes and freebies have been at the heart of AAP’s election strategy. In 2020, BJP’s criticism of AAP’s free electricity and water as “revadis” backfired, as voters perceived it as a threat to their benefits. Learning from this, BJP has adjusted its stance, now promising to continue all existing welfare schemes if elected.
In addition to maintaining free power and water, BJP has introduced counter-promises, such as:
- ₹2,500 per month for women, surpassing AAP’s offer of ₹2,100.
- Housing schemes targeted at slum dwellers.
On the other hand, Kejriwal is directly reaching out to voters, emphasizing how AAP’s schemes have saved households thousands of rupees. He argues that under BJP, these benefits could be at risk.
Voters in lower-income groups are prioritizing whichever party offers the most benefits, making this an unpredictable factor in the elections.
Leadership Face-Off: Kejriwal vs Modi
Leadership remains a defining factor in the Delhi elections. Arvind Kejriwal is firmly positioned as AAP’s Chief Ministerial face, while BJP has refrained from projecting a local leader, instead relying on PM Narendra Modi’s popularity.
Kejriwal’s reputation as a leader focused on education, healthcare, and governance has helped AAP in past elections. However, recent controversies, including corruption allegations and the Sheeshmahal episode, have slightly dented his image.
For AAP supporters, these controversies do not hold much weight, as they believe Kejriwal was unfairly targeted. On the other hand, BJP is leveraging Modi’s appeal, urging voters to give the party a chance after 27 years of AAP and Congress rule in Delhi.
With BJP running a constituency-based campaign and sensing anti-incumbency in some areas, the leadership question remains a significant influence on voter decisions.
A Tight Two-Way Contest
As election day approaches, the battle between AAP and BJP is intensifying. While AAP remains in a strong position due to its grassroots support and welfare policies, BJP has made strategic gains in key voter segments.
The final outcome will depend on how these factors play out:
- If AAP retains its dominance among Dalit and Muslim voters, it could secure over 50 seats.
- If the middle class consolidates behind BJP and there is a split in Dalit votes, a closer contest similar to Haryana and Maharashtra elections could unfold.
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