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The Lokniti-CSDS exit poll, released on Friday, predicts a decisive win for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Delhi Assembly elections, with an estimated vote share of 46%. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is projected to secure 41% of the votes.
Congress Vote Share Higher in Lokniti-CSDS Survey
The findings are consistent with the projections of Axis My India, which anticipates the BJP winning between 45 to 55 seats with a vote share of 48%. AAP, on the other hand, is expected to secure 15 to 25 seats with a 42% vote share. The majority mark in the 70-member Delhi Assembly is 36 seats.
While most exit polls predict a minimal role for the Congress, the Lokniti-CSDS survey estimates the party’s vote share at 9%, suggesting a stronger presence compared to other polls, which have projected significantly lower numbers. Other exit polls have placed the Congress’s seat tally between 0 to 3.
Lokniti-CSDS Survey Methodology and Voter Demographics
The Lokniti-CSDS survey was conducted across 140 locations, gathering responses from diverse voter demographics. The sample included 42% women, 16% Muslim voters, 2% Sikh voters, 80% Hindu voters, and 18% Scheduled Caste (SC) voters.
Axis My India, led by psephologist Pradeep Gupta, released its exit poll findings on Thursday. The agency predicted a BJP victory with 45 to 55 seats and a 48% vote share. AAP was projected to win 15-25 seats with a 42% vote share, while Congress was estimated to secure 0 to 1 seat.
Similarly, Today’s Chanakya exit poll projected a BJP victory in the range of 45 to 57 seats, with a vote share of 49%.
Polling and Results Timeline
Voting for the 70-member Delhi Assembly took place on February 5. The official results will be declared on February 8, with the current Assembly’s term set to conclude on February 26.
The @LoknitiCSDS survey Estimes for Delhi Election
BJP 46%
AAP 41%
Cong 9%
Others 4%
Margin of Error + – 3%
No of Sampled AC 28
No of Sampled Locations 140
Sample profile Women 42%, Muslim 16%, Sikh 2%, Hindu 80%, SC 18%@PalshikarSuhas@SandeepShastri2 @csdsdelhi— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) February 7, 2025
Also Read: Who Is Winning the Delhi Elections? Phalodi Satta Bazaar Releases Fresh Predictions
