Allan Litchman is the person who holds the record of predicting the outcome of U.S. elections 9 times out of the past 10 elections. His famous method by which he predicts the result, he termed it as “13 keys”. we will know about his famous method and will learn what he has to say about the 2024 U.S. elections. But first let’s know who is Allan Litchman?
Allan Litchman is a history professor at American University (AU) in Washington, Allan litchman got into the journey of predicting elections results with a Russian seismologist named Vladimir Keilis-Borok,in 1981, where Litchman was a visiting scholar at the California institute of technology.
The only election he failed to predict correctly was the 2000 presential election. He predicted Al gore over George bush. after the results he even said that his predictions were correct but the 2000 elections was stolen.
So, what is his famous ’13 keys’ trick, which he is very confident about:
Litchman’s trick involves 13 questions based on true and false, each serving as a litmus test question for the ruling party’s prospects.
these are the keys summarized by the website of USAToday
1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third-party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
For the U.S elections 2024, Litchman is yet to lock an official stance, and he will do that in August. But so far, he thinks it’s Joe Biden.
He stated the Guardian “A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose,”.
