Goldman Sachs analysts warn that Hurricane Milton may significantly impact Disney’s earnings, particularly in its Parks and Experiences segment. They estimate the hurricane could lead to a reduction in earnings before interest and taxes of approximately $150 million to $200 million in Disney’s fiscal first quarter of 2025. This potential loss surpasses the $100 million hit Disney took from Hurricane Irma in 2017, which resulted from park closures and cruise disruptions.
As a result, Goldman Sachs has lowered its earnings per share forecast for Disney from $5.22 to $5.14. They also anticipate a 6% decline in domestic attendance for the first quarter, up from a previous estimate of a 2% decline. Their projections for Disney’s recently concluded fourth quarter remain unchanged, with an expected earnings per share of $1.16 and operating income of $3.8 billion for the Parks and Experiences segment.
As of Tuesday morning, Hurricane Milton was situated about 545 miles southwest of Tampa, moving at 12 mph with sustained winds of 145 mph. It is expected to make landfall near the Tampa area, which has not faced a direct hurricane since 1921, and then move toward Orlando as it weakens.
Disney has yet to announce any potential park closures, and representatives did not respond to CNBC’s request for comments on the updated earnings projections.