IDFC First Bank Shares Drop 5% Amid Weak Q3 Earnings And Analysts Slash Target Price

Shares of IDFC First Bank tumbled by 5% on January 27, 2025, following the release of disappointing Q3 earnings. The bank’s net profit for the quarter plunged to Rs 339.4 crore, more than halving from Rs 715.7 crore in the same period last year. This steep decline is primarily attributed to the underperformance of the bank’s micro-finance (MFI) business, which continues to struggle amid a challenging macroeconomic environment.

Key Financial Highlights:

• Net Profit Decline: IDFC First Bank’s net profit fell significantly by over 50%, to Rs 339.4 crore in Q3FY25.
• NII Growth: The bank’s net interest income (NII) showed a positive growth of 14.4%, rising to Rs 4,902 crore, compared to Rs 4,286.6 crore in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year.
• Net Interest Margin (NIM): NIM contracted to 6.04%, down from 6.18% in Q2FY25, primarily due to a decline in the microfinance business and the shift towards wholesale banking.

Despite the growth in NII, the bank’s financial performance has disappointed market participants, resulting in a significant drop in its share price. As of the latest trading session, IDFC First Bank shares were trading at Rs 59.17 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE).

Challenges in Micro-Finance Impact Performance

The micro-finance sector has been a significant drag on IDFC First Bank’s performance. V Vaidyanathan, the bank’s Managing Director and CEO, acknowledged the ongoing challenges in the MFI segment but expressed optimism about a potential resolution within the next few quarters. He stressed that the credit issues in the sector are transitional and will likely improve with time.

Analyst Price Target Reductions: A Mixed Outlook

Analysts have slashed their price targets for IDFC First Bank, reflecting their concerns about the bank’s earnings growth in the near term.

• Morgan Stanley downgraded its outlook and set a new target price of Rs 58, citing weak earnings and an unfavorable macro environment impacting future growth prospects.
• Jefferies has maintained a ‘buy’ rating but revised its target price to Rs 73. The firm believes the MFI challenges will persist for two to three quarters, though stable growth in other segments could offer some support.

While the short-term outlook remains bleak, both brokerages acknowledge the bank’s strength in other areas and remain cautiously optimistic for a recovery once the MFI sector stabilizes.

Looking Ahead: The Road to Recovery

Despite the disappointing results, IDFC First Bank is focusing on improving its microfinance loan book and managing its exposure to the sector’s challenges. As the bank looks forward to the upcoming quarters, its ability to manage its MFI portfolio will be crucial in determining its future performance.

Takeaways for Investors:

• Short-Term Volatility: Expect volatility in the short term due to ongoing challenges in the micro-finance business and foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows.
• Long-Term Outlook: The bank’s strong net interest income and diversified business model could support its recovery in the long run, though cautious market sentiment is expected to persist.