Stock Market Opens with Loss, Cautious Ahead of Economic Survey and Union Budget

Indian markets started the week with a decline following global market weakness after U.S. President Joe Biden opted out of the presidential race. Indian markets are also facing selling pressure ahead of the Union Budget announcement by the government.

The Nifty 50 index declined by 100 points to 24,430, while the BSE Sensex lost 250 points to 80,391 during early trade on Monday. In the broader market on NSE, the volatility index surged by more than 3 percent, and all indices, including Nifty Next 50, Nifty 100, Nifty Midcap, and Nifty Smallcap, faced selling pressure, trading in the red during early trade.

“Indian markets will look at the Union Government’s Economic Survey, to be tabled in the Lok Sabha at 1 pm. Though the Economic Survey is more of a strategic document, with aspirational notes on what could be done, the data points on growth and the government’s assumptions on revenues and expenditure will be watched closely,” said Ajay Bagga, Banking and Market Expert.

On the impact of President Joe Biden opting out of the presidential race, Bagga added, “Markets had largely factored in a high probability of a Trump 2.0 Presidency, and the Trump Trade was running. To that extent, markets should take this announcement in their stride and have a limited impact. The Democrat nominee finalization around Kamala Harris and a VP-elect partner will be watched with interest. US futures are starting flat. We expect a limited impact on the markets for now.”

Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, markets are predominantly trading lower. The Asia Dow shows a modest gain of 1.71 percent, contrasting with declines in Japan’s Nikkei 225 by 0.77 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index by 0.06 percent, and China’s Shanghai Composite by 0.26 percent.

In European markets, the UK’s FTSE index declined along with the CAC index of France and the DAX index of Germany due to uncertainty in the U.S. elections. However, Dow Jones futures surged by 50 points to 40,336.42, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed with a decline last week.

Interestingly, the market has historically reacted enthusiastically to the budget, as per BSE data. Between 2016 and the last interim budget announced in February, the market generally rose, except for the Union Budget of 2018, which saw a decline from 35,906.66 to 35,066.75, a drop of 839.91 points.

The highest jump was observed the day after the Union Budget announcement in 2021, when the Sensex rose by 1,197.11 points, reaching 49,797.72 from the budget day figure of 48,600.61. Other significant increases were seen in 2017 with 777.35 points, 2018 with 84.97 points, the interim budget in February 2019 with 113.31 points, June 2019 with 792.82 points, 2020 with 136.78 points, 2021 with 1,197.11 points, 2022 with 695.76 points, 2023 with 224.16 points, and 2024 with 440.33 points a day after the budget announcements.

Meanwhile, foreign portfolio investors infused Rs 15,420 crore into the Indian equity market last week, according to data from the National Securities Depository. The net investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPI) surged to Rs 30,772 crore so far in July, indicating strong buying by foreign investors.

(With ANI Inputs)
Also Read: Economic Survey 2023-24 Presentation Today: What It Means for the Union Budget 2024-25?