Prime Minister Narendra Modi is heavily favoured to secure a third term, with all 12 exit polls predicting a resounding victory for his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance over the Congress-led INDIA bloc. The BJP’s ambitious slogan ‘abki baar, 400 paar’—mocked by the opposition and doubted by analysts—could become reality as results come in.
Should the BJP achieve this milestone, it would not be unprecedented. In 1984, the Congress party won 414 seats following Indira Gandhi’s assassination, propelled by a wave of sympathy, which made Rajiv Gandhi the Prime Minister.
The Hindi Belt: A Stronghold for Dominant Wins
The Congress’ 1984 landslide was due to sweeping victories in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Delhi. The party secured 83 seats in UP, 48 in Bihar, 43 in Maharashtra, and 24 in Gujarat, and complete sweeps in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, and Himachal Pradesh. These states accounted for 284 of 299 seats, or 95% of the votes from these regions, ensuring Rajiv Gandhi’s victory.
Fast forward to 2019, the BJP’s most dominant win saw the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) capturing 353 of 543 Lok Sabha seats. The BJP’s success was similarly anchored in the Hindi heartland, which has been a reliable voter base since the 2004 election. In 2019, the BJP and its allies won 74 seats in UP, 41 in Maharashtra, 39 in Bihar, and 28 in Madhya Pradesh. They also achieved clean sweeps in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Delhi, securing 251 of 266 seats, or 95%.
BJP’s Focus on the Hindi Heartland
The BJP’s path to ‘400 paar’ relies heavily on the Hindi heartland, just as Congress’ 1984 triumph did. Exit polls predict significant victories for the BJP in UP (68 seats), Bihar (33), Maharashtra (29), Rajasthan (21), and Haryana (7), alongside clean sweeps in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, and Delhi. This totals 251 seats, with additional gains from Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand.
The BJP’s 2024 haul from these states is projected to match its 2019 performance, suggesting the party has maximized its support in the Hindi heartland and must now turn to other regions to surpass 370 seats and aim for 400.
BJP’s ‘Mission South’ Campaign
The BJP’s strategy includes an aggressive campaign in southern states, particularly Tamil Nadu and Kerala, where the party has historically struggled. In 1984, Congress won 13 of Kerala’s 20 seats and 25 of Tamil Nadu’s 39. The BJP hopes to make significant inroads here, though exit polls are skeptical, predicting only four seats for the NDA.
The BJP’s best-case scenario in Tamil Nadu is ten seats, but even this will not suffice for a ‘400 paar’ outcome. However, additional opportunities exist in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Odisha. In 2019, the BJP dominated Karnataka but performed poorly in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. Improvements in these states could yield a crucial 41 seats.
The Bengal Battleground
West Bengal, with 42 Lok Sabha seats, has become a high-stakes battleground for the BJP and the Trinamool Congress, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. In 1984, Congress won 16 seats here, but the BJP won none. By 2019, the BJP claimed 18 seats, a significant leap. Exit polls predict the BJP could secure 23 seats in 2024, potentially shifting the balance of power.
Exit Poll Predictions for 2024
Despite the challenges, some exit pollsters are optimistic. The BJP-led NDA winning up to 401 seats. News24-Today’s Chanakya suggests they could hit the 400-seat mark, while others,project between 378 and 392 seats.
Conversely, the INDIA bloc, led by Congress, remains confident of an upset, though exit polls disagree. Estimates for the bloc range from 107 to 182 seats, indicating a tough road ahead for the opposition.
In conclusion, the BJP appears set to achieve its internal target of 370 seats and is within striking distance of the ‘abki baar, 400 paar’ goal, potentially marking a historic win for Prime Minister Modi and his party.
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