Exit Poll Numbers Vs Results For Earlier Lok Sabha, Assembly Elections In Haryana And J&K

As voting in Haryana concludes on Saturday, the focus shifts to the exit polls, which are anticipated ahead of the results on October 8. In Haryana, while the exit polls in 2014 were largely accurate in predicting the BJP’s win, they were significantly off in 2019, when many pollsters had expected a landslide BJP win, but the election resulted in a hung House instead.

In Jammu and Kashmir, which last held an Assembly election in 2014, exit polls had predicted a hung Assembly, giving the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) an advantage over the BJP, National Conference (NC), and Congress.

Haryana 2014 assembly elections Exit Poll Vs Results

In 2014, the BJP came to power, ending Congress’s 10-year rule. An average of four exit polls had predicted that the BJP would fall short of the 46-seat majority mark in the 90-seat Assembly. These polls estimated the BJP would win around 43 seats, while the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) was predicted to secure 27 seats, followed by Congress with 13. The BJP ultimately won 47 seats, Congress took 15, and the INLD ended up with 19 seats, eight fewer than predicted.

The BJP ultimately won 47 seats, Congress took 15, and the INLD ended up with 19 seats, eight fewer than predicted

Haryana 2019 assembly elections Exit Poll Vs Results

In 2019, however, most polls had predicted a significant BJP victory, with some forecasting the party to win more than 70 seats. The election ended in a hung Assembly, with no party crossing the majority mark. An average of eight exit polls had predicted the BJP would win 61 seats, with Congress trailing behind at 18. However, the actual results saw the BJP with just 40 seats and Congress with 31. On average, these polls overestimated the BJP’s tally by 21 seats and underestimated Congress’s by 13.

Seven of these polls had forecast the BJP to win enough seats to form a majority. NewsX-Pollstrat had predicted the BJP would win as many as 75-80 seats, while India Today-Axis had projected the party would secure 32-44 seats, predicting the BJP would fall short of a majority.

Only three polls had projected that Congress would surpass the 20-seat mark, and just one had predicted it would cross 30 seats. India Today-Axis’s projection of 30-42 seats for Congress turned out to be the most accurate.

In these elections BJP won 40, INC won 31, JJP won 10, INLD won1 while others won 8.

Jammu and Kashmir 2014 assembly elections Exit Poll Vs Results

In 2014, during the last Assembly election held in Jammu and Kashmir, CVoter exit poll had predicted that no party would reach the 44-seat majority mark in the then 87-member Assembly. The exit poll had estimated that the PDP would lead with 32-38 seats, followed by the BJP with 27-33, the NC with 8-14, and Congress with 4-10. Eventually, the PDP won 28 seats, the BJP secured 25, the NC 15, and Congress won 12 seats.

Haryana Lok Sabha elections 2024 Exit Poll Vs Results

Today’s  Chanakya exit poll gave NDA 46% of the vote share  and 6 ± 2 seats, while the INDI Alliance was given a similar percentage, securing around 4 ± 2 seats. The India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicted the NDA would win 6-8 seats, while the INDI Alliance would get 2-4 seats. The India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicted the NDA will win 6-8 seats, while the INDI Alliance was given 2-4 seats. In these previous elections, the BJP won five out of the 10 seats, with Congress claiming the other five.

J&K Lok Sabha elections 2024 Exit Poll Vs Results

Exit poll predicted a close battle between BJP and INDIA bloc. There are a total of five seats in Jammu and Kashmir, and one  in Ladakh. Out of which the BJP was given 2-3 seats. The JKNC was predicted to win 2 and Congress 1. In these elections, NC won two seats in J&K, BJP won two, and AIP won one. National confence backed independent candidate also won the Ladakh seat.

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