Elections, in the truest sense, are a celebration of democracy. There is excitement for the announcement of dates, the start of the nomination process, and the commencement of the election campaign. In a phased election like the current one, the first and last days of voting become major events. However, for many in India, the most eagerly awaited event is the release of exit polls.
Since exit polls began in 1957, there has been significant improvement in at least one area: sample size. The days when a national sample of 20,000 to 30,000 respondents was considered large are long gone. Today, survey agencies conduct exit polls with samples as large as 10 lakh.
Voting for the seventh and final phase of the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 took place on Saturday, June 1 for 57 constituencies across seven states and the Union Territory of Chandigarh. Key constituencies in phase seven include the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat in Uttar Pradesh, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third consecutive term. Notable candidates in this phase include Union minister Anurag Thakur, Mamata Banerjee’s nephew Abhishek Banerjee, Lalu Prasad’s daughter Misa Bharti, and actor-turned-politician Kangana Ranaut. The results will be declared on June 4.
An exit poll is a post-election survey, similar to an opinion poll, which is conducted before the election. In an exit poll, voters are asked who they voted for after leaving the polling station. In contrast, an opinion poll asks people who they intend to vote for.
With varying predictions from numerous exit polls, it can be difficult to determine which, if any, are trustworthy. Parties trailing in exit polls frequently claim these surveys are inaccurate. While exit polls gauge voter sentiment and indicate a current trend, political leaders provide a more analytical and hopeful analysis.
The first exit poll in India was conducted in 1957 by the Indian Institute of Public Opinion during the second Lok Sabha elections. In 1996, Doordarshan, the state-run broadcaster, hired the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies to conduct exit polls nationwide. Scroll down to know the exit polls predictions by NewsX in collaboration with D-Dynamics.
Speaking of overall results, BJP is expected to win the Lok Sabha Polls 2024 with 315 seats, whereas, Congress might only secure 60 seats. The INDI Alliance might gain 160 seats, whereas others will win 47 seats.
#ExitPollsOnNewsX | The much awaited Exit Poll numbers for 2024 are here. NewsX-D-Dynamics predicts a thumping victory for the BJP-led NDA, with the BJP winning 315 seats and the alliance winning 371 seats. @NewsX @DecodingDynamic#IndiaGeneralElection #LokSabha2024… pic.twitter.com/uM1b82y0cy
— NewsX World (@NewsX) June 1, 2024
As per the Exit Poll by NewsX, BJP is expected to secure 36 seats in the south, whereas Congress might have to settle with 32 seats. DMK might win 22 seats, while TDP might gain 13 seats. YSRCP will have 7 seats in their kitty and BRS will win 2 seats.
Andhra Pradesh went on polls on May 13, 2024 for all 25 Andhra Pradesh Lok Sabha seats and 175 assembly constituencies. The Andhra Pradesh Lok Sabha and Assembly Elections present a triangular contest involving the ruling YSRC, led by Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy, the Congress-led INDIA bloc, and the NDA. Notably, this time, the BJP has formed an alliance with Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP and the Pawan Kalyan-led Jana Sena Party (JSP). In 2019, the YSR Congress Party secured a landslide victory, winning 151 out of 175 seats, while the TDP and other parties trailed significantly. Here’s what NewsX exit poll predicts:
BJP: 03
INC: 00
YSRCP: 07
TDP: 13
JSP: 02
NDA: 18
INDI: 00
OTH: 07
Telangana went to the polls on May 13, 2024 in the third phase for the Lok Sabha Elections. As per the Election Commission of India, the voter turnout in the state was around 66 per cent, where polling was held in the third phase of the Lok Sabha elections 2024. Here’s what the exit polls by NewsX predict:
BJP: 07
INC: 07
BRS: 02
AIMIM: 01
NDA: 07
INDI: 07
OTH: 03
Karnataka went to Lok Sabha elections in two phases i.e. April 26 and May 7, with 28 seats, in which 5 seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 2 for Scheduled Tribes. The state recorded the state’s highest-ever voter turnout for a general election at 69.9%, in comparison to the last two elections in 2019 and 2014. Here’s what NewsX exit poll predicts:
BJP: 21
INC: 05
JDS: 02
NDA: 23
INDI: 05
Kerala went on polls on April 26, 2024, during the second round of the Indian General Elections. Twenty members of the Lower House of Parliament, or Lok Sabha, are to be chosen by these elections. Several senior BJP and Opposition leaders, including Rahul Gandhi and Shashi Tharoor of the Congress, and Union Ministers Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, Kailash Choudhary and Rajeev Chandrasekhar, are in the fight for the seats. As per the exit poll, here’s what NewsX predicts:
BJP: 02
INC: 11
LDF: 04
UDF: 03
NDA: 02
INDI: 18
Tamil Nadu participated in the first phase of the Lok Sabha elections on April 19, with all 39 seats up for grabs. The BJP, which did not win any seats and garnered over 3 percent of the vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, is anticipated to surpass the AIADMK’s performance this time. In the single-phase Lok Sabha polls held on Friday, Tamil Nadu saw a voter turnout of 72.09 percent, with no significant incidents reported. Here’s what NewsX exit poll predicts:
BJP: 02
INC: 06
DMK: 22
AIADMK: 05
OTH: 04
NDA: 02
INDI: 28
OTH: 9
Puducherry, a union territory with its unique political dynamics, saw a closely fought electoral battle. Voting in the union territory of Puducherry finished in Phase One of the Indian General Election on April 19, 2024. The fight is for one seat in Puducherry, and this is what NewsX exit poll predicts:
BJP: 01
INC: 00
NDA: 01
INDI: 00
BJP and Sharad Pawar for NCP will be battling it out for a single in the union territory of Lakshadweep. Distinguished as India’s smallest Union Territory, Lakshadweep holds the unique status of having the smallest Lok Sabha constituency by voter count, with just 49,922 registered voters. Here’s what NewsX exit poll predicts:
BJP: 00
INC: 00
NCP SHARAD: 01
NDA: 00
INDI: 01
Approximately 63.9 percent of the total 3.15 lakh voters in Andaman and Nicobar Islands cast their votes for the single Lok Sabha seat in the Union territory. Nicobar district saw a turnout of 72.7 percent, while North and Middle Andaman recorded 72.8 percent, and South Andaman witnessed 59.59 percent turnout.
Overall, there are 12 candidates vying for the seat, including two women and five independents. The primary contest is between BJP’s Bishnu Pada Ray and the incumbent MP from Congress, Kuldeep Rai Sharma. If we talk about the exit polls, for the fight of one seat. Here’s what NewsX exit poll predicts:
BJP: 01
INC: 00
NDA: 01
INDI: 00
In 2014, an average of eight exit polls predicted the BJP-led NDA would win 283 seats and the Congress-led UPA 105 seats. However, they failed to gauge the extent of the ‘Modi wave,’ with the NDA ultimately securing 336 seats and the UPA only 60. Of these, the BJP won 282 and the Congress 44.
In 2019, an average of 13 exit polls estimated the NDA’s combined tally at 306 seats and the UPA’s at 120. Once again, they underestimated the NDA’s performance, which resulted in 353 seats in total. The UPA received 93 seats. Of these, the BJP won 303, and the Congress 52.
Blindly relying on exit poll predictions is not advisable, as there is always a possibility of errors. Recent years have witnessed several instances where exit polls have proven to be inaccurate. However, in both 2019 and 2014, while exit poll predictions successfully captured the overall national mood, there were discrepancies.
In 2019, the average exit poll suggested the NDA would win 306 seats and the UPA 120 seats. These predictions fell short of the actual results, as the NDA secured 352 seats (with the BJP winning 303) and the UPA claimed 93 seats (with the Congress securing 52).
In 2014, the BJP-led NDA achieved a resounding victory that many exit polls did not fully anticipate, despite predicting an NDA win. However, they underestimated the scale of the victory. On average, eight exit polls projected the NDA would win 283 seats and the UPA 105 seats. In reality, the NDA won 336 seats, with the BJP securing 282, while the UPA claimed 60 seats, with the Congress obtaining 44.
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