Exit Polls Go Wrong Again, BJP Set To Win Haryana

The exit poll results for the Haryana Election indicated a lead for Congress over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while various polls suggested a hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir. However, the official EC trends in Haryana contradict many exit polls published on October 5, which forecasted a sweeping victory for Congress, signaling the end of the BJP’s decade-long rule in the region. A party need to secure at least 46 out of 90 assembly seats to form the government in Haryana.

The Axis My India exit polls predicted a clear majority for Congress, estimating 53-65 seats in the 90-member assembly. The BJP was projected to win between 18-28 seats, while the INLD-BSP alliance was anticipated to secure 1-5 seats. Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was predicted to fare poorly.

In contrast, the Republic TV-Matrize poll suggested Congress might attain 55-62 seats, with the BJP expected to win 18-24. Dainik Bhaskar’s survey estimated Congress would capture 44-54 seats, the BJP 15-29, and others 4-9.

Exit polls Vs Results

However, the latest EC trends revealed a significant lead for the ruling BJP, now projected to win 48 seats. Initially trailing behind Congress, the BJP surged ahead after a surprising turnaround, leading on 48 seats compared to Congress’s 36 as of 12:30 p.m.

For Jammu and Kashmir, most exit polls predicted a hung assembly, yet EC trends indicated a strong showing for the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance. In J&K, a party also requires 46 seats to govern, with a total of 90 constituencies.

The Congress and NC ran in alliance against the BJP in these elections. The Axis My India exit poll estimated the BJP might win 24-34 seats (21% vote share), while the NC-Congress-CPIM alliance was projected to secure 35-45 seats (38% vote share). The PDP was expected to receive 4-6 seats (9% vote share), with NC anticipated to claim around 24.

Clear mandate in Haryana, J&K

Dainik Bhaskar estimated the NC-Congress alliance would win 35-40 seats, with the BJP at 20-25. Independent candidates were expected to outperform the PDP, which may garner 4-7 seats. Republic-Gulistan forecasted 31-36 seats for the NC-Congress and 28-30 for the BJP, also suggesting a potential ‘kingmaker’ role for independents, projected to win 19-23 seats, leaving the PDP with 5-7.

If the Election Commission trends are accurate, the Congress-NC alliance could win the J&K Assembly elections with 51 seats, while independent candidates lead on seven seats. The BJP trails significantly with only 28 seats. The trends indicate that Farooq Abdullah’s NC could emerge as the single largest party with 43 seats.

Final results for the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir Elections 2024 will be announced once all votes have been counted.

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