Haryana Exit Poll 2024: Exit Polls Suggest Congress Comeback, BJP On The Backfoot

The 2024 Haryana Assembly Elections have concluded, bringing into focus the state’s major political players. Among the key contenders are the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Indian National Congress (INC), the INLD-BSP alliance, the JJP-Azad Samaj Party alliance, and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Prominent political figures leading these parties include sitting Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, BJP leaders Anil Vij and OP Dhankar, Congress stalwarts Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Vinesh Phogat, INLD’s Abhay Singh Chautala, and JJP’s Dushyant Chautala.

A total of 1,031 candidates are vying for seats in this election, with 101 women candidates and 464 independents in the fray. Voting officially ended at 6 PM, and the much-anticipated vote count is scheduled for October 8.

BJP’s Bid for a Third Term Amid Strong Opposition

In its quest for a third consecutive term, the BJP is up against a formidable opposition. The Congress, hoping to end a decade-long stint in opposition, is looking to regain its foothold in the state. In the last Assembly elections in 2019, the BJP managed to win 40 seats but fell short of a majority. The JJP, which won 10 seats, stepped in as a crucial coalition partner, allowing the BJP to form the government.

The Congress, in contrast, had secured 31 seats in 2019. This time around, they are building on momentum from their recent gains in the Lok Sabha elections, where the party managed to capture five of the state’s seats after a five-year gap.

Voter Turnout and Key Election Highlights

Polling took place across 90 constituencies from 7 AM to 6 PM, with over 2 crore voters expected to cast their ballots. Among these voters are 8,821 centenarians, making their presence felt at 20,632 polling stations across Haryana. The voter turnout is a crucial factor that could determine the outcome of this tight contest between the BJP, Congress, JJP, and AAP.

The Congress is pinning its hopes on a strong showing, supported by a manifesto that includes key promises such as legal backing for Minimum Support Prices (MSPs), a caste census, and a monthly allowance of ₹2,000 for women. Rahul Gandhi spearheaded the party’s campaign, focusing on issues such as the Agniveer scheme, farmers’ protests, and the agitation of wrestlers against the BJP.

Exit Polls Show Congress in the Lead

Exit polls for the Haryana Assembly Elections 2024 are beginning to surface, painting a mixed picture of the results. Several agencies, including Matrize, People’s Pulse, and Dhruve Research, have provided their predictions based on voter sentiment following the conclusion of voting earlier today.

According to the MATRIZE exit poll, Congress is projected to take the lead with 55-62 seats, while the BJP is expected to secure only 18-24 seats. The INLD could win 3-6 seats, while JJP might struggle with 0-3 seats. Other parties are likely to secure 2-5 seats.

PEOPLES PULSE presents a similar forecast, predicting that the Congress will win between 49 and 61 seats, while the BJP could land 20-32 seats. INLD might win 2-3 seats, and JJP could see a minimal outcome with 0-1 seat. Other smaller parties are estimated to gain 3-5 seats.

DHRUVE RESEARCH exit polls offer a slightly different outlook, with the Congress potentially winning 50-64 seats and the BJP capturing 22-32 seats. The INLD and JJP are predicted to get no seats, while other parties might win between 2 and 8 seats.

DAINIK BHASKAR suggests Congress will win 44-54 seats, with BJP trailing at 15-29 seats. INLD and JJP are expected to get no seats, while others could win 4-10 seats.

PMARQ predicts Congress will take 51-61 seats, BJP could secure 27-35, INLD might win 3-6, and JJP could see a loss with 0 seats.

JIST-TIF RESEARCH gives Congress an estimated 45-53 seats, with BJP trailing at 29-37. INLD might get 0-2 seats, and other smaller parties could win 4-6 seats.

Comparison with 2019 Exit Polls and Final Results

It is important to note the discrepancy between exit polls and actual results in previous elections. During the 2019 Haryana Assembly Elections, most exit polls heavily favored the BJP, with predictions that it would win over 70 seats. However, the final results were significantly different. The BJP only secured 40 seats, resulting in a hung assembly, while the Congress won 31 seats—far above the predictions of many exit polls.

The accuracy of this year’s exit polls will only be known once the votes are counted on October 8. As of now, many predict a strong showing for the Congress, signaling a potential shift in power in the state.

Previous Poll Predictions

For the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections, exit polls projected that the NDA would garner 46% of the vote share, potentially winning 6 ± 2 seats. The INDI Alliance was expected to receive a comparable vote share, with an estimated 4 ± 2 seats. In the final outcome, the BJP-led NDA won five out of Haryana’s 10 seats, while Congress claimed the other five.

In the previous Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA managed to secure five out of Haryana’s 10 seats, with the Congress taking the remaining five. As the assembly election results approach, the exit polls give insight into how the battle for Haryana may unfold, not only for the state assembly but also as a precursor to the national elections next year.

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