How Accurate Were Maharashtra, Jharkhand Assembly Election Exit Polls In 2019?

Exit polls in India have faced criticism for inaccuracies, especially following errors in predicting the 2024 Lok Sabha and Haryana assembly elections. With Maharashtra and Jharkhand voting today, there is significant interest in whether this round of exit polls will prove more reliable.

Maharashtra, Jharkhand Assembly Election Exit Polls: The voting process for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections concludes today, with results for both states scheduled to be announced on November 23. Various polling agencies and television channels will attempt to forecast the outcomes through exit polls, which are expected to be released shortly after voting ends. Here is an analysis of the accuracy of exit polls during the 2019 elections.

Jharkhand Assembly Election Exit Polls (2019)

The Jharkhand assembly election in 2019 was conducted between November 30 and December 20. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA), comprising the Congress and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), emerged victorious. The JMM, under Hemant Soren’s leadership, secured 30 seats, while the BJP won 25 seats, and the Congress gained 16.

Predictions from major pollsters included:

India Today-Axis My India anticipated an advantage for the UPA, projecting 43 seats for the alliance and 27 for the BJP.
ABP-Voter forecasted a hung assembly, estimating 35 seats for the UPA and 32 for the BJP.
Times Now predicted 44 seats for the UPA and 28 for the BJP.

Maharashtra Assembly Election Exit Polls (2019)

In the Maharashtra assembly election of 2019, the BJP won 105 seats, the Shiv Sena (before its split) secured 56, the NCP (before its division) garnered 54, and the Congress achieved 44 seats.

Key exit poll predictions included:

India Today-Axis My India projected 166–194 seats for the NDA (BJP and Shiv Sena) and 72–90 seats for the UPA (Congress and NCP).
News18-IPSOS forecasted 243 seats for the NDA and 41 for the UPA.
Republic-Jan Ki Baat estimated 216–230 seats for the NDA and 52–59 for the UPA.
Times Now predicted 230 seats for the NDA and 48 for the UPA.
ABP News-C Voter projected 204 seats for the NDA and 69 for the UPA.

Credibility of Exit Polls

In 2019, while exit polls were not entirely precise in their seat tallies, they largely succeeded in forecasting the general trends for both states.

Maharashtra is presently governed by the Mahayuti coalition, comprising the BJP, a faction of the Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, and a segment of the NCP led by Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar. In Jharkhand, the ruling alliance includes the JMM, Congress, and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).