Exit polls for the Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections indicate that no political party is expected to reach the halfway mark of 46 seats in the Union territory. According to the various polls published on October 5, the Jammu Kashmir National Conference-Congress alliance is likely to win the most seats. National Conference is projected to be the single largest party in J&K, winning 33-35 seats on average. BJP is anticipated to win 23 to 27 seats on average, making it the second-largest party in the Union Territory.
The Jammu and Kashmir National Conference and Congress, partners in the INDIA alliance, contested the assembly elections together, while the PDP and BJP campaigned independently.
Vote counting is scheduled for October 8. In 2023, the Supreme Court directed the Centre to hold assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir by September 30, 2024. Exit polls released after 6 PM on Saturday, following the conclusion of voting in J&K, show a strong lead for the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance. However, they may face competition from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in securing a majority. J&K has 90 assembly seats, with any party or coalition needing 46 seats to form a government.
Dainik Bhaskar exit poll: No party to cross majority mark
The Dainik Bhaskar exit poll predicts the Congress-NC alliance leading with 35-40 seats but suggests no possibility of a majority, projecting the BJP to win 20-25 seats. The PDP is expected to win 4-7 seats, while other parties could collectively win between 12-16 seats, potentially providing them with significant leverage in post-election alliances.
Congress-NC alliance: 35-40
BJP: 20-25
PDP: 4-7
Others: 12-16
Gulistan News exit polls: maller parties could play a crucial role in the government formation
Gulistan News exit poll has predicted the Congress-NC alliance will secure 31-36 seats, while the BJP is set to win 28-30 seats. The PDP is expected to win 5-7 seats, with other parties projected to claim 8-16 seats. This projection further supports the idea of a fierce competition for the formation of government where smaller parties could play a crucial role in the formation of a government.
Congress-NC alliance: 31-36
BJP: 28-30
PDP: 5-7
Others: 8-16
People’s Pulse exit poll: Congress-NC alliance is set to cross the majority mark
People’s Pulse exit poll predicts the Congress-NC alliance is set to cross the majority mark with 46-50 seats, indicating a strong potential for governance. The BJP is likely to secure 23-27 seats, while the PDP is expected to win 7-11 seats, with others taking 4-6 seats.
Congress-NC alliance: 46-50
BJP: 23-27
PDP: 7-11
Others: 7-11
RepublicTV-Matrize exit polls: A competitive power struggle
According to the RepublicTV-Matrize exit polls, both the BJP and Congress-NC alliance fall short of a majority, suggesting a competitive power struggle. With 90 seats in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly, this close result could lead to a hung Assembly, where no single party or alliance holds a clear majority. BJP is likely to win 28-30 seats while congress is expected to win 31-36 seats. Matrize has predicted 4-7 seats for PDP while giving 12-16 to others.
Congress-NC alliance: 31-36
BJP: 28-30
PDP: 4-7
Others: 12-16
India Today-C Voter exit poll: Congress-NC alliance leads the race
According to the India Today-C Voter exit poll, the Congress-NC alliance appears to be leading with a projected seat share of 40-48, placing them in a strong position to form the next government in Jammu and Kashmir. The BJP, seeking to consolidate its influence, is predicted to win between 27-32 seats. Despite previous electoral gains, these numbers suggest the BJP may not achieve an outright majority. The PDP, once a formidable force, is expected to win between 6-12 seats, while smaller regional parties and independents are expected to secure around 6-11 seats combined. No political party is expected to breach the majority mark, which may lead to hung assembly.
Congress-NC alliance: 40-48
BJP: 27-32
PDP: 6-12
Others: 6-11
Axis MyIndia exit polls: Congress-NC alliance leading
The Axis MyIndia exit poll shows the Congress-NC alliance leading, but still falling short of a majority. The BJP may also seek alliances to influence the election outcome. According to Axis MyIndia BJP is expected to win 24-34, NC-Congrees alliance 35-45, PDP 4-6 while others will likely win 8-23 seats.
NC-Congrees alliance: 35-45
BJP: 24-34
PDP: 4-6
Others: 8-23
C Voter exit poll
C Voter has given 27-32 seats to BJP; 40-48 seats to INC-NC alliance, 6-12 seats to PDP while 6-11 seats to others.
2014 J&K assembly elections: exit polls on point
In the last Assembly election held in 2014, exit polls predicted a hung Assembly. PDP emerged as single largest partyahead of the BJP, NC, and Congress. The average exit poll numbers at that time predicted that no party would exceed the 44-seat majority in the then 87-member House. The projections were as follows: PDP at 32-38 seats, BJP at 27-33, NC at 8-14, and Congress at 4-10. The election results ultimately revealed that the PDP won 28 seats, the BJP 25, the NC 15, and the Congress 12. Eventually, the PDP won 28 seats, the BJP secured 25, the NC 15, and Congress won 12 seats.
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