The latest exit polls for the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) elections indicate a significant shift in the political landscape, with the Indian National Congress (INC) and National Conference (NC) expected to secure a decisive victory. According to projections, the INC and NC coalition is set to win 44 seats, a notable increase from their combined total of 27 in the 2014 elections, reflecting a positive swing of 17 seats.
The Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, marking the first significant polls since the abrogation of Article 370, were held over three phases in recent weeks. The voting concluded on October 1 in a “peaceful and celebratory atmosphere,” with the final phase encompassing 40 constituencies. Vote counting is scheduled for October 8.
An official statement noted, “The Election Commission of India announced the official schedule on August 16. Voting occurred for 24 constituencies on September 18, for 26 constituencies on September 25, and the final phase for 40 constituencies took place today. Voter turnout was 61.38% in the first phase, 57.31% in the second, and an estimated 68.72% in the third phase, bringing the overall turnout to approximately 63.45%.”
Data indicates that in the Kashmir region, Kupwara achieved a turnout of 65.81%, Baramulla 59.84%, Bandipora 67.57%, Ganderbal 62.83%, Srinagar 30.08%, Budgam 63.28%, Pulwama 46.99%, Shopian 57.01%, Kulgam 63.14%, and Anantnag 57.90%. In the Jammu region, Kishtwar recorded 80.20%, Doda 71.32%, Ramban 70.57%, Reasi 74.68%, Udhampur 75.87%, Kathua 72.23%, Samba 75.22%, Jammu 70.25%, Rajouri 71.13%, and Poonch 74.37%.
Key Highlights from the Exit Polls
INC + NC: 44 seats (up 17 from 2014)
BJP: 28 seats (up 3 from 2014)
PDP: 7 seats (down 21 from 2014)
Others: 11 seats (up 4 from 2014)
Dainik Bhaskar Exit Poll for J&K Assembly Elections
Dainik Bhaskar projects that the INC-NC alliance will secure between 35 and 40 seats, while the BJP is anticipated to win 20 to 25 seats. The PDP, which was in coalition with the BJP in the previous government, is expected to capture 4 to 7 seats, and other parties are predicted to garner 12 to 16 seats.
Gulistan News Exit Poll for J&K Assembly Elections
Gulistan News forecasts the INC-NC alliance will achieve 31 to 36 seats, with the BJP expected to secure between 28 and 30 seats. The PDP is predicted to win 5 to 7 seats, while other parties are projected to take 8 to 16 seats.
People’s Pulse Exit Poll for J&K Assembly Elections
According to People’s Pulse, the INC-NC alliance is poised to surpass the majority threshold with an estimated 46 to 50 seats. The BJP is expected to receive between 23 and 27 seats, the PDP is projected to secure 7 to 11 seats, and other parties are likely to win 4 to 6 seats.
C Voter Exit Poll for J&K Assembly Elections
C Voter estimates that the BJP will win between 27 and 32 seats, while the INC-NC alliance is projected to achieve 40 to 48 seats. The PDP is expected to secure 6 to 12 seats, with other parties predicted to garner 6 to 11 seats.
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A Dramatic Shift in Voter Sentiment
The exit polls reveal a remarkable decline for the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which has dropped from 28 seats in 2014 to a projected 7. This loss underscores a significant change in voter sentiment, possibly influenced by a variety of factors including governance issues, local dynamics, and the evolving political narrative in the region.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while gaining a modest increase of 3 seats, appears to be losing ground compared to the INC and NC coalition. With a projected total of 28 seats, the BJP’s performance may be seen as a consolidation of its existing base rather than a significant expansion.
2014 Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly Election
The 2014 elections for the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly were conducted in five phases between 25 November and 20 December 2014. A total of 87 members were elected to the assembly, which completed its six-year term on 19 January 2020. The results were announced on 23 December 2014. In these elections, voter-verified paper audit trails (VVPATs) were implemented along with electronic voting machines (EVMs) in three of the 87 constituencies.
This marked the last legislative election held before the region’s special status was revoked, with Ladakh becoming a separate Union Territory in 2019.
In the 2019 general elections for Jammu and Kashmir, which were held in five phases from 11 April to 6 May 2019, both the BJP and the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference secured three seats each. The BJP achieved 46.24% of the total vote share, while the National Conference received 7.87%.
The elections were conducted in five stages, despite calls for a boycott by Hurriyat leaders. Remarkably, voter turnout reached over 65%, the highest recorded in the past 25 years, significantly surpassing the average voter participation seen in other Indian states.
In terms of seat distribution across regions, the Kashmir Valley accounted for 46 seats, of which the Jammu & Kashmir People’s Democratic Party (JKPDP) won 25, the National Conference won 12, the Indian National Congress (INC) secured 4, and other parties took 5 seats, with the BJP failing to win any. Ladakh’s 4 seats saw the INC winning 3 and others taking 1, while the BJP did not win any in this region either. In Jammu, which had 37 seats, the BJP dominated by winning 25, with the National Conference and JKPDP securing 3 seats each, the Congress winning 5, and 1 seat going to another party.
