As India awaits results for the 2024 Lok Sabha election which is set to be released on Tuesday, all eyes are on Uttar Pradesh. The question persist as to whether the state will once again be the crown jewel for th Bharatiya Janata Party. Uttar Pradesh has previously also been recognised to be instrumental in shaping the nation’s political landscape. The state, with its vast electoral base, has been important in the BJP’s ascendance to power, delivering 71 of 80 seats in 2014 and 62 in 2019 which enabled the party to form the government at the Centre in both the terms.
The Historical Significance of Uttar Pradesh
The political importance of Uttar Pradesh is marked by its significant contribution of nine Prime Ministers, from Jawaharlal Nehru to the current incumbent, Narendra Modi. Modi, who has represented the Varanasi constituency in both 2014 and 2019 and is seeking a third term in 2024. The BJP’s dominance in Uttar Pradesh has been a cornerstone of its national success, making the state’s performance critical to the party’s prospects.
The Opposition’s Challenge
The opposition, primarily led by the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress, has mounted a vigorous campaign to challenge the BJP’s stronghold. As part of the broader INDIA bloc, they aim to halt the BJP’s march to New Delhi by focusing on key issues and mobilizing voters against the incumbent government. Their strategy and effectiveness will be closely watched as the results unfold.
BJP’s Campaign Focus and Opposition’s Counter
The BJP’s campaign in Uttar Pradesh has emphasized the achievements of the “double engine” government—referring to the alignment of the Modi-led central government and the Yogi Adityanath-led state government. The party’s rhetoric has frequently targeted the opposition’s alleged policies of Muslim appeasement. Prime Minister Modi has even suggested that the Congress manifesto, influenced by the Muslim League, could threaten personal properties, including women’s “Mangalsutras.”
In contrast, the INDIA bloc has accused the BJP of harboring plans to alter the Indian Constitution and eliminate reservations. They have also pledged to dismantle controversial schemes like Agniveer, aiming to resonate with a broader electorate.
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Past Election Results and Trends
In the 2014 elections, the BJP secured 71 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, contributing significantly to its total of 282 seats nationwide. Its ally, Apna Dal (S), also won two seats. In 2019, although the BJP’s vote share increased from 42.63% to 49.98%, the party’s seat tally in the state dropped to 62. This decline was attributed to the alliance between the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the SP, which won 10 and five seats respectively, compared to the five seats the SP won in 2014. The BSP had failed to win any seats in 2014, while the Congress saw its representation drop from two seats in 2014 to just one in 2019, retaining only Rae Bareli.
Shifting Alliances and Electoral Strategies
Post-2019, the BSP and SP parted ways, prompting new political dynamics. The SP’s decision to ally with the Congress for the 2024 elections has generated considerable attention. Historically, alliances have not been particularly successful for the Congress, as seen in their 1996 coalition with the BSP and the 2017 alliance with the SP during the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections.
The effectiveness of the SP-Congress alliance and the BSP’s ability to regain influence will be critical factors in determining the election outcome.
The Final Countdown
Both the BJP and the opposition INDIA bloc have made bold claims about their expected performance in Uttar Pradesh. However, the true test of their assertions will come on counting day. As the nation waits with bated breath, the results from Uttar Pradesh will likely once again play a decisive role in shaping the future political landscape of India.
Also read: 2024 Election Results: Modi Aims For Third Term As INDIA Bloc Hopes For 2004 Revival
