The Samajwadi Party (SP) is spearheading the INDIA opposition bloc’s efforts in Uttar Pradesh, a politically significant state sending the largest contingent of 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha. By 3 PM today, SP was leading in 35 seats, closely followed by the BJP with 34 seats. This performance marks a potential historic moment for SP, which last saw its best Lok Sabha result in 2004 with 36 seats under the Congress-led UPA.
SP leader Akhilesh Yadav is on the brink of securing a decisive victory in Kannauj, a family stronghold. Yadav holds a commanding lead of nearly 350,000 votes over Imran Bin Zafar from Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). BJP’s Subrat Pathak trails far behind, over 100,000 votes adrift, highlighting the SP’s formidable resurgence.
The 2019 Lok Sabha elections had seen the BJP dominate Uttar Pradesh with 62 seats, supplemented by two seats from its ally, Apna Dal (Sonelal). In stark contrast, the SP had only managed to secure five seats. The party’s current performance indicates a dramatic turnaround, potentially altering the state’s political landscape.
The Congress, another key player in the INDIA bloc, is leading in seven seats, including the prestigious Amethi and Raebareli constituencies. Kishori Lal and Rahul Gandhi are ahead of their rivals, Smriti Irani of the BJP and Thakur Prasad of the BSP, respectively. A victory in Amethi, where the Congress leads by over 110,000 votes, would be particularly poignant, reclaiming a seat held by former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi from 1981 until his assassination in 1991. This would also deliver a significant blow to Union Minister Smriti Irani and the BJP.
Rahul Gandhi, who opted to contest from Raebareli after his mother Sonia Gandhi moved to the Rajya Sabha, leads the BJP’s Dinesh Pratap Singh by a substantial 330,000 votes. If the current trends hold, the SP will achieve what neither the Congress nor the BSP could in recent national or state elections – a victory over the BJP in Uttar Pradesh.
This outcome, while surprising to some, is rooted in the 2022 Assembly elections where the BJP won 255 of the state’s 417 seats. The SP, as the nearest contender, won 111 seats, a significant increase from its previous tally, largely driven by widespread support from farmers’ protests against the BJP’s policies.
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Exit Polls and Predictions: A Mixed Bag
Pre-election predictions varied widely, with exit polls initially favoring the BJP. A compilation of exit polls suggested the BJP and its allies would secure 68 seats in Uttar Pradesh, leaving the INDIA bloc with just 12. However, TV5 Telugu’s outlier prediction forecasted a narrow majority for the opposition with 43 seats.
Nationally, exit polls painted a dominant picture for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Projections ranged from 401 seats (India Today-Axis My India, India TV-CNX) to 400 seats (News24-Today’s Chanakya), with the lowest estimate at 281 seats. The INDIA bloc, in contrast, was predicted to win between 107 and 182 seats, with Congress leaders Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi asserting they would secure 295 seats despite these forecasts.
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A Watershed Moment for the INDIA Bloc
The current results in Uttar Pradesh, if maintained, signal a profound shift. The SP’s resurgence, coupled with the Congress’s gains, demonstrates the INDIA bloc’s growing strength and potential to challenge the BJP’s dominance. As the counting progresses, the final outcomes will be crucial in determining the future political landscape of both Uttar Pradesh and India.
The INDIA bloc, formed in June last year to counter Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP, has made strategic alliances and fielded candidates in key constituencies. The SP contested 63 seats while the Congress fielded 17 candidates, an arrangement that has shown promise despite initial skepticism.
Also read: Lok Sabha Election Result 2024: BJP Leads In All 7 Seats In Delhi
