Prashant Kishor Forecasts Major Shifts in Modi Projects, Predicts BJP’s Advantage In 2024 Elections

Prashant Kishor Pandey, commonly referred to as PK, is an acclaimed Indian political strategist with a background in public health programs backed by the United Nations. Transitioning to Indian politics, he has offered strategic counsel to various parties including the BJP, JD(U), INC, AAP, YSRCP, DMK, and TMC. Notably, he gained prominence for his pivotal role in Narendra Modi’s successful re-election campaign as Chief Minister of Gujarat in 2012, and later, for his instrumental contribution to the BJP’s landslide victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections through the Citizens for Accountable Governance (CAG) initiative he spearheaded.

Following the victories of AITC in the 2021 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election and DMK in the 2021 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election, Kishor announced his departure from his role as an election strategist. In a 2021 interview, he expressed his desire to step away, stating that he had accomplished his goals and sought new pursuits in life.

Political strategist Prashant Kishor offered insights into what he foresees as significant shifts in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term, particularly concerning anti-corruption measures. Kishor, who managed Modi’s 2014 campaign, highlighted potential reforms, including the inclusion of petroleum under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and measures to restrict the financial autonomy of states.

“I think the Modi 3.0 government will start with a bang. There will be more concentration of both power and resources with the Centre. There might also be a significant attempt to curtail the financial autonomy of the states,” Kishor remarked, indicating a centralization trend in governance.

Regarding taxation, Kishor speculated on the possibility of petroleum products falling under the ambit of GST, a move currently opposed by states due to potential revenue losses. This shift, if implemented, would alter the revenue landscape, making states more reliant on central funds. Presently, petroleum products are taxed separately, contributing significantly to state revenues.

Kishor also suggested that the central government might delay resource transfers to states and tighten Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) norms, which regulate state budget deficits. These measures could reshape fiscal dynamics between the Centre and states, impacting resource allocation and expenditure.

Furthermore, Kishor predicted India’s assertiveness in global geopolitics, indicating a more proactive stance in international relations. This assertion aligns with growing discussions among diplomats regarding India’s increasingly confident diplomacy.

In the context of the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Kishor assessed the political landscape, suggesting a favorable outcome for the incumbent BJP. He noted a lack of widespread dissatisfaction with the current government, projecting a potential victory for the BJP, led by Modi. Kishor emphasized the importance of public sentiment, highlighting that despite some discontent or unmet expectations, there isn’t a pervasive anger against Modi’s leadership.

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Responding to speculations about seat targets, Kishor emphasized the significance of achieving a majority rather than specific numerical goals. He indicated that even if the BJP falls short of projected figures, securing a majority remains pivotal for forming the government.

Interestingly, Kishor’s observations contrast with recent statements by Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, who anticipates a change in government leadership. Kejriwal’s remarks reflect a differing perspective on the electoral landscape, suggesting a potential shift in power dynamics.

Reflecting on missed opportunities for the opposition, Kishor highlighted instances where they failed to capitalize on moments of vulnerability for the ruling BJP, such as during state elections and economic policy decisions. These oversights, according to Kishor, hindered the opposition’s ability to mount a substantial challenge to the BJP’s dominance.

As the Lok Sabha elections progress, the political climate remains dynamic, with parties vying for voter support. With voting in nearly all constituencies concluded, the stage is set for the culmination of a closely watched electoral contest on June 4.

Prashant Kishor’s insights offer a nuanced perspective on potential governance changes, electoral dynamics, and the evolving geopolitical role of India, shaping the narrative surrounding the Modi government’s third term and the upcoming elections.