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With the 97th Academy Awards just around the corner, this year’s competition remains one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.
The 10 Best Picture nominees represent a diverse mix, ranging from large-scale epics to smaller, character-driven indie dramas. However, based on historical trends and past Academy voting patterns, one film appears to have the strongest momentum.
Sean Baker’s ‘Anora’ Leading the Pack
Among the frontrunners is Sean Baker’s “Anora,” which has emerged as a dominant force. The film has won major precursor awards, including the Palme d’Or, Critics Choice, Directors Guild of America (DGA), Producers Guild of America (PGA), and Writers Guild of America (WGA) awards—an achievement few films have accomplished.
Recent Academy Award winners have favored bold, character-centric narratives featuring strong female leads, such as “Nomadland,” “CODA,” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” With the Academy’s evolving, younger, and more diverse voter base, “Anora” appears well-positioned to follow suit.
One Voter Gets Angry Over Dune Nominations
One voter was audibly angry about seeing Denis Villeneuve’s epic sequel “Dune: Part Two,” not in more categories. “I voted for the first part in almost every category last time,” adding, “How has Denis not won four Oscars already? I don’t understand how the studio and, quite frankly, us Oscar voters fuck this up so bad?”
Adapted Screenplay: “Conclave” Holds the Edge
In the Adapted Screenplay category, “Conclave” has emerged as the likely winner, boasting victories at both the Golden Globe and BAFTA Awards. However, history has shown that this pattern does not always guarantee an Oscar win—such was the case when “The Banshees of Inisherin” ultimately lost to “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
If “Conclave” is truly a contender for Best Picture, securing the Adapted Screenplay award, along with Editing (which it also won at BAFTA), will be crucial. However, a potential upset could come from RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes’ “Nickel Boys,” a film that has garnered significant industry respect and could surprise in this category.
What to Expect on Oscar Night
With the Oscar voting now closed, the stage is set for one of the most exciting and unpredictable ceremonies in years. While “Anora” appears to have the upper hand, surprises are always possible, particularly in categories like Adapted Screenplay.
As the countdown to Hollywood’s biggest night continues, all eyes are on the Academy to see which films will emerge victorious.
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