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A recent study has revealed that the number of people diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease could double by 2050, impacting nearly 25 million individuals globally.
The research, conducted by Capital Medical University in Beijing, China, projects that the prevalence of the neurodegenerative movement disorder will rise to 267 cases per 100,000 people, reflecting a 76% increase from 2021.
Older Adults to See the Sharpest Increase
The study highlights that individuals aged 80 and above will experience the most significant rise in cases, with an anticipated 196% increase by 2050.
Published in The BMJ, the study is the first in-depth analysis of global, regional, and national Parkinson’s prevalence up to 2050.
Researchers aimed to provide data that could help develop effective prevention and intervention strategies, considering factors such as socioeconomic status, age, and gender.
Key Factors Behind the Rising Parkinson’s Cases
The researchers examined data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 report to determine the primary drivers of the expected surge in Parkinson’s cases. They identified:
Population aging – contributing 89% to the increase
Population growth – responsible for 20% of the rise
Changes in prevalence – adding 3% to the total growth
Parkinson’s and Neurodegenerative Diseases Becoming a Leading Cause of Death
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), neurodegenerative diseases, including Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s, are projected to surpass cancer as the second leading cause of death worldwide by 2040.
Men at Higher Risk Than Women
The study also found that men are more likely to develop Parkinson’s than women. The male-to-female ratio of age-standardized prevalence is expected to rise from 1.46 in 2021 to 1.64 in 2050.
Regional Breakdown of Future Parkinson’s Cases
The highest number of Parkinson’s cases is projected to be in:
East Asia – 10.9 million cases
South Asia – 6.8 million cases
Meanwhile, the lowest prevalence is expected in:
Oceania – 11,000 cases
Australasia – 86,000 cases
The rapid increase in Parkinson’s disease cases highlights the urgent need for global healthcare systems to prioritize research, prevention, and effective treatment strategies.
As life expectancy rises, neurodegenerative diseases are expected to pose a growing challenge in the coming decades.
