Exit polls for the 2024 Jharkhand Assembly elections indicate a likely win for the BJP. Predictions from Matrize, Peoples Pulse, and JVC project BJP securing between 40 and 53 seats, while the INDIA bloc, led by the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Congress, is anticipated to follow closely with 25-40 seats.
However, Axis My India contradicts this trend, forecasting a decisive victory for the INDIA bloc with 53 seats, leaving BJP with 25. Another pollster, P-Marq, gives a slight edge to the INDIA bloc, predicting 37-47 seats compared to BJP’s 31-40.
Detailed Exit Poll Analysis
- Matrize: Projects 42-47 seats for BJP, 25-30 for INDIA, and 1-4 for Others.
- Peoples Pulse: Suggests 44-53 for BJP, 25-37 for INDIA, and 5-9 for Others.
- JVC: Estimates 40-44 for BJP, 30-40 for INDIA, and 1 for Others.
- Axis My India: Highlights a major INDIA bloc win with 53 seats, while BJP gets 25 and Others bag 3.
- P-Marq: Predicts a close contest with INDIA bloc at 37-47 seats and BJP at 31-40.
- Chanakya Strategies: Projects 45-50 seats for BJP, 35-38 for INDIA, and 3-5 for Others.
- Dainik Bhaskar: Suggests 37-40 for BJP, 36-39 for INDIA, and 0-2 for Others.
The 2024 Assembly Elections in Jharkhand
The elections for the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly were held in two phases, on November 13 and November 20, with a total voter base of 2.6 crore. The first phase covered 43 constituencies, while the remaining 38 went to polls in the second phase. The vote counting is set for November 23, alongside Maharashtra Assembly elections.
Key parties in the fray include:
- NDA: BJP contested 68 seats, All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) 10, JD(U) 2, and LJP (Ram Vilas) 1.
- INDIA Bloc: JMM contested 41 seats, Congress 30, RJD 6, and CPI(ML) 4.
The campaign has been marked by heated debates on tribal rights, immigration, and corruption. The BJP has relied on its development narrative, while the JMM-led alliance has focused on regional identity and social welfare.
Comparisons with 2019 Elections
In 2019, exit polls largely favored the JMM-Congress alliance, which won decisively with 47 seats. The BJP managed 25, and Congress secured 16. The INDIA bloc is now aiming to replicate its 2019 success, while the BJP looks to regain lost ground.
