In the ongoing Jharkhand Assembly elections, early trends suggest that the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led INDIA alliance is poised for a significant victory, particularly in the tribal-dominated constituencies of the state. The alliance’s Maiya Samman scheme, a direct benefit transfer initiative aimed at women, appears to be a key factor driving this momentum.
As of the latest reports, the JMM-led alliance is leading in 51 out of 80 seats for which trends are available. In contrast, the BJP-led alliance is ahead in just 28 seats. The JMM alliance has secured a 43.8% vote share, while the BJP-led coalition stands at 37.2% with around 15% of votes counted. These numbers indicate a strong performance by the JMM and its allies, which could secure a decisive win if trends continue to hold.
BJP Struggles in Tribal Regions and Rural Areas
The BJP campaign, which focused heavily on the narrative that “infiltrators” were threatening tribal land rights, has not gained significant traction. Notably, the BJP’s influence appears to have faltered even in key regions like Santhal Pargana, a tribal-Muslim dominated area. The JMM-led alliance, on the other hand, is showing a stronger hold over the region, with substantial support from both tribal and Muslim communities.
In rural areas, the BJP has underperformed, with the exception of a few seats. One notable seat is Potka, where Meera Munda, wife of former Chief Minister Arjun Munda, is leading by over 11,000 votes. This result, however, appears to be an outlier in an otherwise disappointing showing for the BJP in rural Jharkhand.
Close Contests: Former JMM Leaders Face Tough Battles
In Saraikela, a crucial constituency, former JMM Chief Minister Champai Soren, who switched allegiance to the BJP just weeks before the election, is locked in a fierce contest with Ganesh Mahali, his former protege and a JMM candidate. With 13 rounds of counting still to go, this seat remains highly competitive, and an upset could be on the cards.
Similarly, Geeta Koda, another former Congress leader who joined the BJP earlier this year, is trailing by over 4,000 votes in Jagannathpur. She is being overtaken by Sona Ram Sinku from the Congress, her former party. These close contests are keeping election watchers on edge as the final tally continues to unfold.
Key Leaders from JMM and Congress Lead Their Seats
Despite some tight races, key leaders from the JMM have maintained their leads. Chief Minister Hemant Soren, along with his wife Kalpana Soren, is ahead of his rivals in their respective constituencies. However, Hemant Soren’s brother, Basant, is trailing in his traditional stronghold of Dumka in Santhal Pargana, which could be a significant upset for the party if the trend continues.
In terms of alliance performance, the JMM has secured a lead in 29 of the 43 seats it contested, with its ally Congress ahead in 14 out of 29 seats. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is leading in 5 out of 6 seats, and CPI (ML) has secured leads in 2 out of 3 seats, showcasing the smooth vote transfer within the INDIA bloc.
Maiya Samman Scheme and Women Voters: A Key Factor
One of the standout features of this election has been the impact of the Maiya Samman scheme, which targets women voters with direct benefits. This initiative has played a pivotal role in bolstering the JMM’s standing, particularly among female voters. Political analysts believe that Kalpana Soren’s involvement in promoting the scheme has had a significant influence on its success, making major headway with women voters across Jharkhand.
The turnout of women voters has been notably higher than that of men, with 68 out of 81 constituencies showing a greater number of women voters participating in the elections. The overall women voting percentage has also outpaced that of men, highlighting the importance of women-centric policies like Maiya Samman in influencing the election outcome.
Impact of Local Leaders: Jairam Mahato and AJSU
Another development that has shaped the election is the performance of Jairam Mahato’s Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha. Mahato’s party appears to have made significant inroads into the Kurmi vote bank, traditionally a stronghold of the BJP ally All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU). While AJSU is ahead in only 2 out of 10 seats, Mahato’s candidates are in strong contention for third place in several constituencies, which could benefit the JMM-led alliance.
In a key race, Sudesh Mahato, president of the AJSU, is trailing from the Silli assembly seat, a significant blow for the party. As the results continue to be counted, it seems that the JMM-led alliance is benefitting from the fragmentation of AJSU’s traditional vote base.
