As the 2nd and final phase of the 2024 Jharkhand Assembly elections concludes today, the focus will be on exit polls that give the first glimpse into the two-horse race going on between the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led INDIA alliance and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA aimed at ending the Hemant Soren government’s innings.
Polling in the second phase commenced on Wednesday, with elections in 38 of the state’s 81 seats. With this round of voting over, attention now turns to the polls predicting and analyzing which party is the most likely to emerge victorious.
EXIT POLLS PREDICTIONS
In the Jharkhand assembly polls, there are a number of exit polls which point to a close competition between the Congress-led alliance-Mahagathbandhan-and the BJP-led NDA.
Here’s the complete breakdown:
The JVC exit poll has predicted that the alliance led by the Congress would garner around 30-40 seats, while the NDA led by the BJP might win 40-44 seats. Axis My India prediction is relatively near the strong position of the BJP as BJP may win up to 53 seats, whereas Congress can win much lower, that is, 25 seats only.
Other exit polls such as the Chanakya Strategies and Dainik Bhaskar polls also provide a positive edge to the Congress-led alliance, where Congress is likely to win some 36-39 seats.
The Peoples Pulse exit poll shows the Congress likely to emerge with between 25-37 seats, and between 44-53 for the NDA. Similar trends are seen in the Matrize exit poll, which predicts that the Congress-constituted Mahagathbandhan may win between 25 and 30 seats. Meanwhile, the BJP-led NDA may win between 42 and 47 seats.
The results so far show it’s a tough contest and that Congress may have an upper hand over the BJP in some predictions, but the majority is not clearly carved out yet.
The Poll of Polls predicts that in the Jharkhand assembly elections, the BJP-led NDA will secure around 40 seats, while the Congress-led alliance (Mahagathbandhan) is likely to win 38 seats.
However, as exit polls often vary in accuracy, the final outcome will depend on the actual vote count once all the ballots are tallied.
Assembly Election Results 2019
The JMM-led alliance seemed to gain the victory in the 2019 Jharkhand Assembly election, with Hemant Soren assuming the position of Chief Minister. In this phase, the alliance won 13 seats out of 38 and its allies Congress and CPI(ML)L secured 8 and 1 seat, respectively. The BJP, on the other hand, won 12 seats, and its current ally, the All Jharkhand Students’ Union Party (AJSUP), claimed 2. Meanwhile, the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM), led by Babulal Marandi, secured 2 seats before merging with the BJP in 2020.
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