Who Will Rule Jharkhand? A Detailed Analysis Of Exit Poll Predictions For 2024 Assembly Elections

Jharkhand Exit Polls: The last phase of the 2024 Jharkhand Assembly elections has been completed and in its wake, the focus now seems to be on exit polls, which give a sneak preview of what the fierce contest between the ruling Hemant Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) alliance in the INDIA and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA may be.

The second phase of voting, held on Wednesday, covered 38 of Jharkhand’s 81 assembly seats, focusing on the Santhal Pargana and North Chhotanagpur regions. This phase follows the first round conducted on November 13. With voting now completed, attention has shifted to projections and analyses of the likely outcome in this tightly contested election.

Exit Poll Predictions

Various exit polls show a neck-and-neck competition between the JMM-led alliance and the BJP-led NDA. Though the numbers are different, the overall result points to the fact that the battle is highly unpredictable.

Complete Breakdown Of Exit Polls

The overall ‘Poll of Polls’ suggest that the BJP-led NDA may sweep about 40 seats, whereas the JMM led Mahagathbandhan will likely bag about 38 seats. Although some exit polls may favor one side, the results throw up a tight contest. However, all this depends on the actual vote count.

1. PMARQ Exit Poll

• Mahagathbandhan (Congress-JMM alliance): 37–47 seats
• NDA (BJP-led): 31–40 seats
• Majority Mark: 42
• PMARQ projects a slight edge for the Mahagathbandhan, predicting a close battle for the majority mark.

2. JVC Exit Poll

• Mahagathbandhan: 30–40 seats
• NDA: 40–44 seats
• This poll forecasts advantage for the BJP-led NDA,

3. Axis My India Exit Poll

• Mahagathbandhan: 25 seats
• NDA: 53 seats
• Axis My India predicts a landslide for the NDA, placing the BJP in a commanding position.

4. Chanakya Strategies Exit Poll

• Mahagathbandhan: 36–39 seats.
• NDA: BJP to sweep Jharkhand with 45-50.
• Chanakya Strategies indicates BJP to sweep Jharkhand.

5. Dainik Bhaskar Exit Poll

• Mahagathbandhan: 36–39 seats.
• NDA: Similar to or slightly fewer seats than Mahagathbandhan.
• This poll aligns with Chanakya Strategies, favoring the Congress-JMM alliance.

6. Peoples Pulse Exit Poll

• Mahagathbandhan: 25–37 seats.
• NDA: 44–53 seats.
• Peoples Pulse gives a strong upper hand to the NDA, projecting a clear majority.

7. Matrize Exit Poll

• Mahagathbandhan: 25–30 seats.
• NDA: 42–47 seats.
• Matrize predicts the BJP-led NDA will secure a majority, with the Mahagathbandhan trailing.

Jharkhand Assembly Elections 2019

In the election held in 2019, the JMM-led alliance emerged victorious, thereby paving the way for Hemant Soren to become the Chief Minister. The alliance won 13 of the 38 seats contested in the second phase of the election. In the last election, Congress and CPI(ML)L won 8 and 1 seat, respectively. The BJP has won 12, while its ally All Jharkhand Students’ Union Party, or AJSUP, won 2. The Jharkhand Vikas Morcha, or JVM, which later merged into BJP in 2020, is also winning 2 seats.

The exit polls have painted a picture of a tight race wherein there is no clear majority yet in sight. Some of the projections appear to give an edge to BJP-led NDA, while others favor the Congress-JMM alliance. As always, the accuracy of exit polls remains questionable and the final verdict will emerge only when the votes are counted.

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