The Jharkhand Assembly elections come as a significant setback for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). According to trends available on the Election Commission’s website, the INDIA bloc led by Jharkhand Mukti Morcha won the mandate garnering leads on 51 out of 81 assembly seats. BJP’s National Democratic Alliance limped in with 30 seats. Despite the release of a comprehensive campaign, the BJP could not depose the ruling alliance. Here’s an in-depth analysis of the five major factors that led to the BJP’s loss.
1. The Sympathy Factor Around Hemant Soren
Chief Minister Hemant Soren’s ED arrest on January 31 in the money laundering case was a watershed moment during the campaign. Indeed, the BJP had hoped to turn the allegations of corruption against him into the major poll issue. But this too backfired. The wife, Kalpana Soren, became a decisive factor in mobilizing public opinion in his favor by describing the arrest as political victimization. Once again the outgoing alliance managed to turn the tables around, portraying the BJP stand as an attack on the leadership of Jharkhand. Launched ahead of the polls, Soren just managed to get back on track and connect with people who feel for his cause.
2. The ‘Bangladeshi Infiltration’ Narrative
The BJP campaign paid a lot of attention to the Bangladeshi infiltration issue. The party portrayed a bleak scenario for regions such as the Santhal Pargana region, terms that it dubbed as ‘mini-Bangladesh.’ They told the electorate they would deport illegal immigrants if they came to power. However, this approach boomeranged. The ruling coalition efficiently countered the narrative, accusing the BJP of attempting to divide and sow communal discord in communities. Mainly, the voters in tribal and minority-dominated areas rejected BJP’s hardline attitude as an endeavor to polarize votes.
3. Lack Of Chief Ministerial Candidate
The other significant drawback for BJP was it failed to project a chief ministerial candidate. The BJP failed to project any face from its side, whereas the ruling alliance rallied behind Hemant Soren as its clear leader and received much-needed dividends. This ambiguity diluted the strength of the party, and the voters were perplexed about who would run the state when led by a BJP government. In strong contrast, the credible sequence and consistency of the leadership of the JMM-headed alliance gave it an edge that was mission-critical.
4. ED And CBI Raids
Actions of Central Agencies. The raids of ED and CBI on JMM leaders became a talking point of the elections. Where the BJP used the investigations to frame serious instances of rampant corruption within the ruling alliance, the INDIA bloc reversed the script. In return, it assailed the BJP of misusing central agencies as tools of political intimidation. The electorate seemed to believe the bias claims of the INDIA bloc, which stymied the BJP’s attempt to make corruption central to a campaign.
5. The Turncoat Strategy That Backfired
The strategy of the BJP fielding defectors from the ruling coalition did not pay off as expected. Sita Soren, sister-in-law of the outgoing Hemant Soren, who joined the BJP, was among the party leaders to suffer electorally. For example, Sita Soren lagged behind by over 33,000 votes in the Jamtara constituency. Such turncoats did not strike a chord well with the masses, many of whom considered such defections to be opportunistic rather than transformative.
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