Four hours into the counting of votes for the Maharashtra Assembly elections, the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance emerged victorious with a commanding lead, marking a political resurgence after setbacks in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year. As per the latest trends, the Mahayuti is leading on 221 out of 288 Assembly seats, far surpassing the opposition bloc, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which trails with just 56 seats.
The BJP has spearheaded the alliance’s performance, leading in 124 out of 148 contested seats, while allies Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction have also delivered impressive results, outperforming rival factions led by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar.
Who Will Be The Next CM?
The stunning victory brings with it a pressing political question: Who will be the next Chief Minister of Maharashtra? The BJP, as the primary force in the Mahayuti alliance, is expected to stake its claim, with Devendra Fadnavis likely being its preferred candidate. However, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena may present a counterargument, emphasizing that Shinde served as the Chief Minister during the election campaign and that his leadership and policies contributed significantly to the alliance’s success.
In 2022, when Shinde led a rebellion against Uddhav Thackeray and split the Shiv Sena, the BJP allowed him to take the Chief Ministerial position. However, with over 120 BJP MLAs in the current Assembly, the party may assert itself more strongly this time, potentially creating tension within the alliance.
Echoes of 2019 for Maharashtra
The 2024 election results mirror the post-poll drama of 2019, when the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance fractured over disagreements about the Chief Minister’s role. Back then, the BJP won 122 seats, and the undivided Shiv Sena secured 63 seats, but disputes over a purported rotational Chief Ministership agreement led to a split.
Today, the stakes are even higher, with two factions each of Sena and NCP vying for political relevance. Much like 2019, the BJP’s negotiation with Eknath Shinde’s Sena could become a flashpoint. However, the dynamics differ slightly now, as the BJP has an alternative option in Ajit Pawar’s NCP, which performed well in its strongholds.
While Ajit Pawar’s faction strengthens the BJP’s bargaining position, the Shinde Sena may feel pressured to avoid sidelining itself. If the BJP insists on the Chief Minister post, it risks alienating Shinde’s faction, potentially destabilizing the alliance.
Eknath Shinde, addressing the media as results tilted in the alliance’s favor, cautiously remarked, “We will sit and decide. (Prime Minister Narendra) Modiji is our senior.”
Opposition’s Crushing Defeat in Maharashtra
The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), comprising Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction, has suffered a humiliating defeat. Collectively, the MVA is leading on just 56 seats, with Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (Sharad Pawar) securing 19, 19, and 14 seats, respectively.
This result comes as a shock, particularly after the Congress-led INDIA bloc secured 30 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra earlier this year. Riding high on its general election success, Congress had secured a favorable seat-sharing deal within the alliance but has now failed to deliver on expectations.
This poor performance has broader implications:
- Congress: Likely to face internal criticism for failing to convert favorable contests into victories, potentially weakening its bargaining power in future alliances.
- Uddhav Thackeray: Faces an uphill battle to assert his leadership after Eknath Shinde’s faction significantly outperformed the UBT in the competition to be recognized as the “real Shiv Sena.”
- Sharad Pawar: Confronts a similar existential challenge, as Ajit Pawar’s faction emerged stronger than his own.
