The political landscape of Maharashtra has undergone a significant transformation, with the BJP emerging stronger than ever, while Congress is left struggling to find reliable allies. The turning point came on October 25, 2019, when the Shiv Sena stalled the formation of the NDA government, despite the alliance winning a clear majority (161 out of 288 seats) in the state assembly elections. This led to a surprising political realignment when the Shiv Sena chose to form a government with Congress and the NCP, leading to a shift in the political fortunes of all parties involved.
BJP’s Resurgence and Massive Victory
Over the course of five years, the question of whether the Congress-NCP-Shiv Sena alliance could defeat the BJP in Maharashtra has now been answered. The BJP has reclaimed its position, and it now seems that Congress is struggling without strong allies. The BJP-aligned factions of the Shiv Sena and NCP have emerged victorious in the elections, and the NDA, now known as Mahayuti, has secured an even bigger majority with 235 out of 288 seats. The BJP itself has grown stronger, indicating a tectonic shift in the state’s political dynamics.
Geographical Shift in Maharashtra’s Political Landscape
In the 2019 assembly elections, the Congress and BJP won a combined total of 149 seats (BJP 105, Congress 44). In the 2024 elections, the BJP retained 98 out of the 105 seats it won in 2019. Of the seven seats it didn’t win this time, it did not contest one, giving it to its allies. The remaining six were won by Congress or its allies. When comparing the performance of the NDA alliance (BJP + Shiv Sena) between 2019 and 2024, the alliance has retained a substantial 87% of the 161 seats it won in 2019, while gaining an additional 95 seats. The NDA lost only 20 of the seats it had won in 2019.
In contrast, the Congress-led Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which secured 98 seats in 2019, has only retained 24 of them. The Mahayuti has claimed 71 seats that were previously with the MVA. However, the MVA has gained 26 seats that they did not win in 2019, with a significant portion of these coming from the Shiv Sena (UBT). Despite this, the MVA’s gains remain marginal in comparison to the BJP-led alliance’s dominance.
A Shift in Political Strategy and Legacy Battles
The political competition in Maharashtra was a blend of ideological differences and battles for political inheritance. The BJP and Congress-led alliances clashed ideologically, while there were internal struggles within the Shiv Sena and NCP over the legacy of the undivided parties. Voters seem to have clearly decided on their preferred side, favoring the BJP and its allies.
The BJP has significantly improved its strike rate in head-to-head contests against Congress. In the 2024 elections, the BJP won 86.3% of the 73 head-to-head contests with Congress, a sharp increase from its 68.4% strike rate in 2019. The BJP also performed exceptionally well against the non-Congress components of the MVA, with a strike rate of 87.2%. On the other hand, Congress’ strike rate against the BJP-led Mahayuti is a mere 18.5%, a clear indication of their diminishing strength in Maharashtra politics.
Decline of Congress in Maharashtra
The decline of Congress in Maharashtra is evident in its drastically reduced MLA count. In 2019, Congress had 44 MLAs, but in 2024, the party is left with just 16 MLAs. Meanwhile, the Shiv Sena and NCP factions have either retained or slightly improved their MLA count. The Shiv Sena (including the Shiv Sena UBT faction) now holds 57 seats, up from 56 in 2019, and the NCP (including its split factions) holds a combined total of 51 seats, down from 54. Despite internal shifts, it is Congress that appears to be losing its foothold in the state.
While the Shiv Sena and NCP have faced significant internal turmoil since 2019, it is Congress that now faces an existential crisis in Maharashtra. The party is struggling to maintain its relevance, with a shrinking influence and no major allies to back it. The BJP, on the other hand, has emerged as the dominant force in Maharashtra, with a strengthened position heading into the future.