Delhi Elections 2025 Poll Of Polls: Exit Polls Predict BJP’s Lead In National Capital

As the national capital gears up for the crucial Delhi Assembly Elections 2025, various agencies have released their seat projection surveys, providing a broad insight into the electoral battle. The Poll of Polls, which averages multiple pre-election surveys, suggests that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is leading the race with 43 seats, crossing the halfway mark of 36 needed to form the government. The ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is projected to secure 26 seats, while the Indian National Congress (INC) is expected to win just 1 seat.

Key Highlights of Poll of Polls

• BJP: 43 seats (projected majority)
• AAP: 26 seats (significant decline)
• Congress: 1 seat (marginal presence)
• Others: 0 seats (no impact)

With a total of 70 assembly seats in Delhi, these projections indicate a potential power shift in the city after nearly a decade of AAP rule under Arvind Kejriwal.

Breakdown of Agency-wise Projections

Several polling agencies have conducted surveys, each presenting a varying seat range for the three major contenders. Here’s a comparative analysis:

Key Takeaways from Agency Predictions

1. BJP’s Upper Hand:

   • The BJP is expected to secure between 35-60 seats, with most agencies giving it a clear edge over AAP.
   • People’s Pulse survey predicts the highest tally for BJP at 51-60 seats, while Matriz gives it the lowest range of 35-40.

2. AAP’s Declining Numbers:

   • The ruling AAP is predicted to win between 10-37 seats, showing a significant drop from its 62-seat victory in 2020.
   • People’s Pulse predicts the worst scenario for AAP at just 10-19 seats, suggesting a major setback.

3. Congress Continues to Struggle:

   • The Congress is virtually absent from the competition, with most agencies giving it 0-2 seats.
   • Chanakya’s Strategies predicts a slightly better outcome with 2-3 seats, but still far from relevance.

4. No Major Impact of Others:

   • All surveys indicate zero impact of smaller parties and independents.

Possible Reasons for BJP’s Lead

The BJP’s rise in Delhi can be attributed to multiple factors:

• Nationalism & Modi Factor: BJP’s campaign has focused on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity, leveraging his strong leadership image.
• Hindutva & Law & Order Issues: The party has highlighted concerns over law and order, corruption, and governance under AAP.
• MCD Victory Impact: BJP’s win in the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) elections in 2022 has given it momentum.
• Congress’ Weakness: The collapse of Congress has led to direct polarization between BJP and AAP, with anti-AAP votes consolidating towards BJP.

Challenges for AAP

Despite ruling Delhi since 2015, AAP faces major hurdles:

• Corruption Allegations: Scandals such as the Delhi Liquor Policy case have dented AAP’s clean image.
• Governance Fatigue: After two terms in power, voter fatigue may be setting in.
• BJP’s Aggressive Push: With a strong campaign, the BJP is mobilizing its voter base effectively.

Can AAP Still Retain Power?

While the poll of polls suggests a BJP victory, elections can be unpredictable. AAP’s focus on welfare schemes, such as:

• Free electricity & water
• Mohalla Clinics & education reforms
• Doorstep delivery of services

could still swing undecided voters in its favor. However, it will need to counter BJP’s aggressive campaign effectively.

Final Verdict

The Delhi Assembly Elections 2025 seem to be tilting in favor of the BJP, which is projected to end AAP’s decade-long rule. However, with a close fight in some seats, the final outcome will depend on last-minute voter swings and turnout trends.

As Delhi heads to the polls, the battle for the capital remains intense, with BJP aiming for a comeback and AAP fighting to retain power.