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As Delhi gears up for the 2025 Assembly election results, all eyes are on the exit polls that aim to predict the outcome. While exit polls are often a mix of precision and speculation, some agencies have consistently provided accurate projections in past elections.
The Role of Exit Polls in Delhi Elections
Exit polls, conducted by various agencies and news organizations, gather data from voters immediately after they cast their ballots. These surveys attempt to gauge the public sentiment and predict which party is likely to form the government. However, their accuracy depends on sample size, methodology, and voter transparency.
Which Exit Poll Has Been the Most Reliable?
Looking at previous Delhi Assembly elections, certain exit polls have proven to be more precise than others. In the 2020 elections, Today’s Chanakya came closest to predicting the landslide victory of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), forecasting 70 seats for AAP, while the party secured 62. Similarly, Axis My India, known for its data-driven approach, has maintained a strong record in several elections, including the 2015 and 2019 polls.
Challenges in Predicting Delhi’s Electoral Outcome
Delhi’s political landscape is highly dynamic, with voter preferences shifting based on governance, policies, and campaign narratives. Factors such as last-minute voter swings, turnout variations, and silent voters often lead to discrepancies between exit polls and actual results.
Exit Poll Accuracy in Previous Delhi Elections
Delhi Assembly Elections 2020
- Exit Polls Prediction: Most exit polls projected a landslide victory for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), with estimates ranging between 50-65 seats.
- Actual Result: AAP secured 62 seats, while the BJP won 8 seats.
- Accuracy: Exit polls were largely correct in predicting an AAP sweep, with only minor variations in seat numbers.
Delhi Assembly Elections 2015
- Exit Polls Prediction: Several agencies predicted a comfortable majority for AAP, with most projections ranging between 35-50 seats.
- Actual Result: AAP won 67 out of 70 seats, leaving just 3 seats for the BJP.
- Accuracy: While exit polls predicted an AAP win, they underestimated the party’s landslide victory.
When Is Delhi Exit Poll 2025?
People are eagerly anticipating the exit poll results. However, according to the Election Commission of India (ECI), these results will be announced only after 6 PM on February 5. As per ECI regulations, exit poll findings cannot be released before the voting process is completed.
Also Read: Delhi Exit Polls 2025: How Accurate Have Exit Polls Been In The Past?
